The demographics and annual growth rate of Ireland’s populace appears to be a subject of contention. At the conclusion of the previous year, the number of residents, according to the European Commission’s economic affairs directory (Ameco), stood at 5.35 million, reflecting a rise of 3.5%. The commission’s statistical service (Eurostat), however, estimates the number at 5.27 million, suggesting a larger 4.2% increase. The domestic Central Statistics Office, meanwhile, sets the number at 5.28 million as of April this year, noting a more modest increase of just 1.9%.
While each estimate varies and includes different parameters, they all indicate a significant influx of approximately 100,000 Ukrainians since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
However, the focus should not be on the discrepancy between these estimates, but rather, the implications they have for public policy. The government has previously misjudged housing targets due to an incomplete understanding of population growth. This manifested in the ‘Housing for All’ policy, unveiled in September 2021, which significantly underestimated the housing deficit, which current census data suggests is around 256,000 homes, significantly larger than initially thought.
The previous target for new house constructions, set at 33,000 a year, has now been scaled up to between 42,000 and 62,000, contingent on population growth. The higher end of this spectrum is now seeming likely.
However, housing isn’t the only sector influenced by population growth. The extent to which sectors such as health, education and transport have been suitably planned to accommodate population increase remains uncertain. Assumptions that current demand projections for hospital beds, train carriages, and school desks appropriately cater to our growing population may be unwise.
Despite the challenges, there are also positive impacts of population growth. As a general principle, an expanding population can stimulate economic growth through increased demand for goods and services. As such, the state should theoretically be able to handle the economic challenges of a growing population.