In a crucial diplomatic meeting aimed at avoiding a full-scale war in the Middle East, representatives from the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel are convening in Doha. For the seventh time since December, these parties hope to broker a lasting peace agreement. US President Joe Biden has expressed anticipation that a potential ceasefire and agreement on hostage release would mollify Iran’s threats of major countermeasures for the assassination of the Hamas political leader, Ismail Hanniyeh, by Israel on Iranian soil, as well as the killing of the Hizbullah military leader, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut. If Iran retaliated, it could provoke Israeli attacks on Lebanon and potentially Iran itself.
According to diplomats, a ceasefire framework agreement is close to being finalised. Notably, a month prior, Hamas softened their stance on when to discuss the cessation of hostilities, conceding that broader negotiations could only begin post-ceasefire, once it was in progress and maintained. Israel had steadfastly disagreed with guaranteeing an end to the war, emphasising its intent to completely eliminate Hamas.
Negotiations following the ceasefire would turn to the contentious subject of Gaza’s future governance and Israel’s contentious claim of maintaining a security presence. Progress towards the favoured Palestinian goal of establishing two separate states is projected to be protracted, with ceasefire dependence on an agreement of these matters being unfeasible.
Israel, however, has introduced new conditions for agreeing to a ceasefire. It has stated that it will neither pull out from the Gaza-Egypt border area nor allow the unrestrained return of displaced Palestinians to the northern part of the strip.
Concerns have arisen over whether the team sent to Doha by Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu would have the power to negotiate these matters. Netanyahu seems to be more focused on salvaging his political career and retaining his radical coalition. His extreme-right associates are cautioned against bringing down the government if he accedes any ground to Hamas.
Despite the lack of unity amongst the cabinet members, defence minister, Yoav Gallant, is said to have the backing of the army chiefs and the head of intelligence services, in favour of a truce. Furthermore, top military officers from the US are believed to suggest that Israel has already maximised its efforts in countering Hamas. The families of 115 hostages, yet to be released by Hamas, are also intensifying their calls for Prime Minister Netanyahu to settle on an agreement.
The Israeli prime minister now finds himself in a season where he is urged to prioritise the nation’s interests above his own and to challenge his extremist partners. This is deemed as the sole method of assessing Hamas’s sincerity and readiness to agree to a peace settlement. It also represents the only feasible way to alleviate the pain in Gaza, with the Palestinian casualties now presumed to outnumber 40,000, and to halt the descent into a full-blown regional warfare.