Over the weekend, the most intense conflict since 2006 stirred anxieties of an all-out war between Israel and Hizbullah. Despite this, it was observed that the boundaries that might lead to such a war are currently recognised and held in respect by both parties.
Last month’s execution of high-ranking officer Fuad Shukr resulted in Hizbullah launching over 300 rockets at Israel. In response, Israel executed a flurry of air attacks on southern Lebanon. Despite the severity, these actions suggest a conscious effort to avoid a full war rather than pushing towards an immediate escalation.
On Sunday evening, Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, somewhat unusually sought to bring an end to the conflict. However, he left enough wiggle room to keep options open. Achievements were claimed by both regimes, with Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, claiming the military had disabled thousands of rockets targeting Northern Israel.
Neither Israel, Hizbullah nor Iran appear inclined or financially equipped to engage in a full-blown war. However, given the unsuccessful termination of ceasefire negotiations in Egypt, the risk of war remains very real and is fueled by antagonistic language from all parties involved. Low-level but lethal missile exchanges persist along Lebanon’s border, with Iran’s vow of revenge for the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh on their territory acting as a reminder of unresolved disputes.
The military-focused engagements that occurred over the weekend were noteworthy due to their specific targeting of military facilities, with every effort made to prevent harm to civilians. This differs greatly from the conflict in Gaza. While there are some within the Israeli cabinet who advocate for invading south Lebanon, there’s a recognition that Hizbullah’s arsenal of missiles remains almost untouched – cities like Tel Aviv remain in immediate danger. Western intelligence sources and Israeli experts estimate that Hizbullah would be capable of firing upwards of 3,000 missiles daily for a period of 10 days, a figure that surpasses what was reported to have been launched on Saturday by a factor of ten.
Continually pushing the boundaries of the enemy’s tolerance is a hazardous strategy. The potential for derailment due to unplanned incidents, the provocative behaviour of an unpredictable extremist ally or a simple misjudgement of the unpredictable internal political landscape of the other party is high.
In order to de-escalate regional tensions, it’s imperative to strive towards a ceasefire in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli captives. Despite negotiations in Cairo appearing to have reached a standstill once more, dialogues will persist at less senior levels in the following days in an attempt to bridge any remaining disagreements. Nevertheless, Israel and Hamas continue to have significant differences on pivotal issues. Meanwhile, the worrying trend of increasing casualties in Gaza, currently surpassing 40,400, continues and the broader region remains tense.