The UK could be nearing the end of 14 years of Tory governance, according to recent opinion polls. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, seemingly aware of his impending fate, has gone ahead to declare a general election for July 4th, operating under the belief that any further procrastination would not brighten his outlook.
Neighbouring Ireland might perceive this as a positive development, given their once amiable relationship with Britain, a camaraderie disrupted by the Brexit fallout and its repercussions. The impact of this circumstance was significantly felt on the Irish island, from north to south, affecting both the economic and political landscape. Additionally, the aspiration for a united European Union was also adversely impacted.
On a drizzling day outside Downing Street’s No 10, he tried to convince voters by advocating for the groundwork laid during his tenure as prime minister. He confidently stated that under his leadership, the country was prepared to make bold decisions that would foster prosperity. Remarkably, he neglected to acknowledge the preceding Tory mainstays such as Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and the disastrous fiscal policies of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.
The prime minister didn’t exploit the opportunity to brag about his notable accomplishments either – no yet to materialise refugee flights to Rwanda and crucial legislation proposals over smoking rules, football regulations, and the rights of tenants and leaseholders, all jettisoned because of the parliament’s prorogation.
Although Sunak could assert that inflation has been effectively reduced to two per cent during his tenure, it brings little consolation to homeowners grappling with high mortgage rates and the agony of unchanging prices. The economy has somewhat rebounded, but the UK continues to lag behind the US since the start of the pandemic. A YouGov poll reveals that a staggering 69 per cent of the public disapproves of how the economy is being managed.
The primary obstacle to Keir Starmer and his restructured Labour Party remains a potential complacency in face of potential sweeping victory, a move which previously thwarted Neil Kinnock’s prospects. In an attempt to neutralise the habitual accusations from Conservatives regarding financial frivolity, the party has chosen to adopt conservative fiscal policies, while discarding or redefining a multitude of progressive agenda items, such as a vital £28 billion green scheme aimed at economic restoration. Their motto for victory hinges upon the notion of “change”. Considering the recent 21 percentage point lead captured by Labour in the polls, a comprehensive majority should be a given. However, the unpredictability of first-past-the-post voting coupled with the probability of tactical voting against conservatives in constituencies where Labour or Liberal Democrats trail at second position, makes forecasting a perilous game. The indeterminable impact garnered by votes in favour of the right-wing Reform Party also introduces an element of doubt. With a long election campaign ahead, there’s ample opportunity for stumbles and shifts in momentum.