There are only a few days left before the polling stations open for both the European and local elections. However, it’s tricky to predict the outcomes due to various ambiguous signs that surfaced during the final campaign days. It’s apparent from the election trail that many voters remain detached from what’s going on, possibly leading to low poll turnout, shifts in support, or both.
The concurrent holding of these two elections, certainly does not mean they are alike. In the large European constituencies, candidates armed with prior fame, either from national politics or other high-profile public roles, usually have an edge. In contrast, local elections are typically won by candidates with personal connections to the constituents or a strong focus on local issues.
Political parties will face a litmus test, the first in four and a half years, to assess their popularity among the electorate through these polls. Local elections are usually viewed as a preparatory stage for the forthcoming general election, however, this can at times be a false indication. For instance, the 2019 local elections were a failure for Sinn Féin, giving no indication of the party’s impressive upswing that followed.
Currently, Sinn Féin is grappling with sliding popularity according to opinion polls. Regardless of this decline, the party is projected to perform better than their 2019 record, though perhaps not as well as initially expected.
The election performance of the parties in power will affect the scheduling of the general election. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, despite claims to the contrary by their leaders, are more likely to favour an early general election if they achieve favourable results.
The three prominent parties are well-positioned to secure a minimum of one seat each in every European constituency. However, the high number of contestants and their neck-and-neck race means that the second-preference votes and continuing counts are likely to be decisive.
These elections mark the first time immigration has been a central issue. The outcomes could indicate whether this has indeed influenced the electorate. Some small extreme-right parties may not contest at the European level, but it’s uncertain whether their inflammatory stance on immigrants will attract local support. Regardless, the current campaign has seen major parties drift towards stricter immigration policies.
Though occasionally viewed as insignificant or “second order”, local authority still plays a critical role in the democracy of Ireland, and as the influence of European law grows, it’s continually shaping the nation’s journey ahead. Given the forecast suggesting a sway towards right-leaning, climate-doubting ideologies in the forthcoming parliament, it becomes imperative for the citizens of Ireland to thoughtfully weigh their voting options and actively partake in their democratic right.