France’s choice to hinder the far-right from achieving a majority has stirred mixed reactions in Europe and led to uncertainties in financial markets given the fear that the three-way partition of the National Assembly into largely irreconcilable blocs could result in a politically unstable France. In response, President Emmanuel Macron’s administration has expressed readiness to step down, albeit tentatively remaining in a caretaker capacity until a viable replacement is found. One likely, but perhaps unsteady possibility is a technocratic government.
The current political parties are far from obtaining an absolute majority in the parliament. Meanwhile, the unexpected victor, a newly-formed alliance of the hard and soft-left, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) securing 182 seats, is facing internal disagreements over its prime minister nominee. The NFP firmly states that it will only be a part of the government if its strategic, anti-Macron, high-tax, high-expenditure policy is adopted.
Macron’s decision to trigger a quick general election has ironically bolstered the parliamentary representation of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) party. RN’s seats have risen from 88 to 143, although this is still a minority. Nonetheless, Le Pen is in a favourable position to run for president again in 2027 and remains optimistic about her chances, asserting her victory is merely delayed.
Macron’s centrist faction, Ensemble, suffered a blow from voters propelling it to a distant second place with a severe loss of seats.
Increased voter participation (at 63%, the highest since 1981) partly drove this unexpected outcome, signifying the anxiety created by the potential of RN governing the country.
The election result manifests predominantly the strategic alliance between left and centre-right factions, the “republican front”, where about 215 candidates from Ensemble and NFP stepped down in the second round to ensure a united stand against RN. This strategy resulted in 175 RN contenders losing in the second round, with 86 seats transferring to Ensemble after 72% of the NFP’s first-round votes shifted to Macron’s party.
Setting aside political discord to vote in defence of democracy is a significant step. Yet, it isn’t equivalent to ruling in unison, and it doesn’t guarantee acceptance for a nominated minority prime minister by Macron. It’s predicted that the president will engage with the relatively moderate Socialists, Greens, and the now diminished former Gaullists of Les Républicains, which could prove to be challenging.
As of now, France has managed to resist the apparently irresistible surge of extreme right-wing movements across Europe. It has demonstrated that the figurative protective barrier between democratic entities and the extreme right, a staunch persistence in unity against such parties, necessitates preservation. Any tolerance towards this matter in other regions has merely provided an avenue for the validation and furtherance of the extreme right.