In its most recent documentation, the Fiscal Advisory Council sustains its potent critique of governmental fiscal policies which it contends have become overly relaxed. Despite forthcoming general elections, it is dubious that these admonishments will be heeded, possibly culminating in some tempering of the intended October 1st package giveaways. Nevertheless, due to the multitude of pledges given by the Coalition, and the speculative proposals, even this remains uncertain.
The council’s claim is predicated on two key contentions. Firstly, they argue that the economy is already operating at its peak, indicating that further inducements may only instigate undue strains upon the economy. Whilst general inflation is decelerating in parallel with declining energy costs, the council identifies sustained price escalation in domestic sectors including rental, food, and healthcare services. This consequently impacts the cost of living, diminishing wage purchasing abilities. An average family, as calculated by the Central Bank, could potentially face an annual increase of roughly €1,000 due to these inflationary forces.
Their second primary premise revolves around the familiar risk of relying on a limited number of large organisations for a substantial percentage of corporate tax revenues. The council cautions that should corporate tax revenues take a hit or job markets reverse, the Government may be forced to break its promises. This could lead to stringent tax hikes or budget reductions precisely when economic growth begins to decelerate.
With corporate tax showing a continuous trend of increase, as substantiated by the newest revenue reports, this not only intensifies the warning but also poses a challenge to the council’s case. The council, in conjunction with the Department of Finance, estimates that once the “windfall” aspect of corporate tax receipts has been deducted, the exchequers remain in deficit. Yet, there is a continued influx of funds. The political tension lies in the demand to channel these funds towards elevating living standards and addressing significant issues in sectors such as housing.
It all boils down to striking the right equilibrium, as always. The Government ought to kick up its investment levels, which as a consequence would bolster growth and alleviate stress on different segments of the economy. However, ensuring value for money and project completion is not a walk in the park. The council is on point in underscoring that besides the investment, the Government is simultaneously escalating its daily expenditure, thereby breaching its own spending rule, planning tax reductions and committing to another series of single-time aids for families.
The council contends that this strategy of executing everything simultaneously amplifies risks for public finances. Budget 2025 should be centred around investment and aid for those who require it. Instead, what’s evidently unfolding is a package tailor-made for the forthcoming elections. Escalating political requirements will only be encouraged by the recent positive state treasury returns.