The European Parliament elections appeared favourable to nationalist and ultraconservative right parties, though not as strongly as they might have hoped, with no massive victories and some notable disappointments. Notable strides were seen in the populist right in countries such as France, Austria, Cyprus, Spain, Greece and the Netherlands. With Brothers of Italy’s leader, prime minister Giorgia Meloni at the helm, Italy saw the party secure between 26 and 31 percent of the vote. Hungary’s figurehead for the new right, Viktor Orbán, encountered stiff competition, and his Polish partners, Law and Justice, couldn’t upset Donald Tusk’s government’s majority. The bid of Vlaams Belang, advocating Flemish independence, to top the polls in its community in the Belgian general election also fell short.
The Social Democrats, under the leadership of the German chancellor, took severe losses from the centre-right Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany. However, even with the increase in votes from 2019, the latter did not meet the expectations of recent polls.
While the radical right are poised to claim up to a quarter of the seats, a massive shift from their 5 percent win 15 years ago, it seems the longstanding parliament majority held by the centre-right-left alliance will stay intact, albeit with a decreased majority. As counting proceeds, forecasts show the centre-right European People’s Party (including Fine Gael) should secure 189 seats, which leaves the Socialists and Democrats trailing in second place with 135 seats. The liberal Renew group (Fianna Fáil) with 83 was hit hard but managed to cling to third place.
With a total of 361 votes necessary for a majority, Ursula von der Leyen looks set to serve a second term as Commission president as anticipated by Europe’s leaders, despite anticipated defections.
In France, president Emmanuel Macron’s surprising decision to call a general election, in the face of impressive gains by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, may represent an unjaded faith in the electorate’s ability to recognise their own recklessness and return to the fold. While in France and other countries (but not in Ireland, interestingly) the elections are perceived as an opportunity for voters to air their grievances about their nations’ leaders in a contest with low risks, Macron hopes that voters might take a different stance when electing a party with no previous government experience during challenging times.
The landscape of European politics has been notably altered to a more conservative perspective thanks to recent elections. Disturbingly, traditional restraints against casting votes for parties with links to fascism have begun to crumble. Equally troubling is the perceived erosion of some parties’ commitment to refrain from forming alliances with such entities. Consequently, by the year 2025, out of 27 member states of the EU, 10 may be under the governance of alliances that are either inclusive of, or endorsed by, populist or extreme right-wing parties. This is not a promising future.