Several days after the sudden departure of Jeffrey Donaldson from the helm of the DUP, the uproar generated by the manner of his exit continues to resonate. This partially accounts for the restrained response from almost all quarters of Northern Irish political circles, with legal concerns playing a contributing role.
Over the long weekend, two statements were issued by the PSNI, one emphasising the risk of public speculation on an ongoing investigation, whilst the other comment clarified the timeline leading to the events of the last week.
Donaldson is faced with ancient sexual allegations, and he reportedly expressed in his resignation letter his intention to strongly dispute these. Both the DUP and Sinn Féin have rejected the notion that these events have destabilised the institutions of the North. However, it is hard to envisage such a seismic occurrence not creating political tremors. Donaldson departs a party that is much fractured.
A large portion of the DUP membership is against Donaldson’s resolution to rejoin the Executive. The belief is the concessions he supposedly attained regarding the transportation of products between the North and Great Britain fall inadequate. At some stage, these members will likely seize the chance to stage a rebellion.
Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly, another Donaldson protégé who took his vacated Lagan Valley seat and was subsequently promoted by Donaldson, might be a focus point of this discord. Alternatively, they may nominate a contender against Gavin Robinson, Donaldson’s interim successor.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty over Robinson’s ambition for permanent leadership could potentially create further issues for the recently reconstituted Executive. The dissenters, however, lack a distinct and credible candidate. With a UK general election on the horizon, a more practical approach might prevail over discord. The DUP might face significant challenges in retaining a number of its seats, especially in Lagan Valley and Robinson’s Belfast East constituency. An internal power struggle would be an undesirable way to prepare for such a battle.
This entirely unexpected progression arises amidst a particularly sensitive stage for all organisations in Northern Ireland, along with the Dublin and London authorities, who would have been encouraged by the seemingly successful establishment of the Executive in the past couple of months. Both have conveyed their endorsement for Robinson’s provisional leadership and advocated for stability.
The psychological repercussions on unionism overall, and specifically on the DUP, are hard to gauge in the long run. Nonetheless, we remain hopeful that this will not result in a disruption of the still fragile political process.