Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected election move has, as anticipated, gifted the far-right Rassemblement National (RN); this group surfaced as the frontrunner in the initial voting rounds on Sunday, securing 34% of the vote, while the combined left Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) managed 28%.
However, the battle for the French parliamentary election — which also saw President’s Ensemble alliance take a tumble to 20% — is not concluded and the RN’s ascension to power is foremost uncertain.
To date, a meagre 76 representatives, those who achieved absolute majorities of suitable voters, have been directly welcomed into the lower house of the National Assembly, consisting of 577 seats, thus leaving approximately 501 opportunities to compete in the upcoming weekend’s second rounds. In many constituencies, RN could find itself faced with an opposing majority if the rival voters unite behind a single representative.
It is quite likely based on the past that such an alliance will form effectively. Both the primary groups opposing RN on Sunday encouraged their voters to coalesce in this way and are contemplating stepping back from the races where the presence of a third representative would divide the anti-far-right votes. However, the successful implementation of this plan is yet to be witnessed.
According to the French voting scheme, the top two primary round contenders may continue to the second round, and a third may also follow if they achieve more than 20% of the votes. Voting analysts believe that this may lead to straight fight-offs in less than 300 electorates and up to 285 triangular races. In contrast, the previous parliamentary election consisted of only eight such triangular races in the second round.
Previously, many voters of the left-wing were more inclined to withhold from voting rather than utilising their vote tactically against the old Front National, and a comparable trepidation of the left was visible in the centre-right as well. This time, however, the voter turnout increased by 20 percent from the previous parliamentary election in 2022 indicating a surge in their commitment, partly driven by heightened concerns about RN’s potential rise to power. The upcoming weekend will be the reality check for the same.