The expectations surrounding the championship are often misleading. During last year’s All-Ireland final, most people assumed that we were witnessing the conclusion of a certain era. The entirety of Dublin’s seasoned players seemed to congregate for a hearty last celebration at their improvised camping site, implying an imminent conclusion.
James McCarthy was perceived as on the verge of retirement, given his casual pint of Guinness at the press conference, while Dessie Farrell was assumed to be leaving after completing his tenure. Talk was even widespread about Brian Fenton setting off on a world trip in his camper van.
However, none of these speculations came to fruition.
[ Brian Fenton: ‘Of course, I’ll return next year. It’s my dream to deliver 10 seasons for Dublin.’ ]
Reflecting on these developments nine months later, it appears pertinent to reassess our presuppositions. Everyone has their personal forecast of what the forthcoming 2024 football championship will entail and its likely progression. But our past experiences show that only a few of us will have the satisfaction of our predictions coming true in July.
Is it conceivable for Derry to conquer the All-Ireland? Has the GAA mistakenly disorganized the calendar? Three legendary footballers speculate on these crucial factors.
In the calm aftermath of last weekend’s league final, no one is exerting any significant mental effort to identify potential contenders. It is universally believed that either Dublin, Kerry or Derry will emerge victorious in the All-Ireland, and in case they do not, the public’s refrain from highlighting the inaccurate pre-championship blabber would be appreciable.
But, is it indeed that straightforward? Are we headed for a championship where Occam’s Razor principle prevails, meaning only the simplest outcomes will actualise? Multiple factors suggest that this could be the reality.
Firstly, the three teams with the top players typically outperform others. Players like David Clifford, Con O’Callaghan and Shane McGuigan stand out as the most formidable forwards in the sport. Sure, some may vouch for alternatives, but honestly, who would you rank higher than them? Shane Walsh? His track record is patchy. Ryan O’Donoghue? He’s not quite there yet. Conor McManus? A few years ago, perhaps, but he’s turning 37 soon.
If Derry has grown, it isn’t far-fetched to assume that other teams may have also improved.
Secondly, these are the teams led by the most accomplished managers. More precisely, the teams with managers who’ve bagged the bulk of All-Ireland victories. Jack O’Connor (four), Mickey Harte (three), and Dessie Farrell (two) hold nine All-Ireland titles amongst them. The other tournament managers have one each, Brian Dooher and Jim McGuinness.
Thirdly, there isn’t a significant difference among them. They’ve each outwitted the others in major games over recent seasons. Dublin conquered Kerry in last year’s finale. Kerry bested Derry in the semi-final, replicating their victory over Dublin in 2022. Last Sunday, Derry triumphed over Dublin thrice, even if they required penalties to ascend the Hogan Stand steps ultimately. Likely, this year’s face-offs among these three won’t have a clear frontrunner.
However, there’s a hint of fragility in this powerful group’s argument. That is, if we have three strong contenders for the All-Ireland, does that suggest that we lack a certain winner? It’s possible for one team to outpace the others, similar to the latter part of the 2010s. Yet, the notion of three teams breaking away and dominating the others seems unlikely.
In Ulster, there are several teams eyeing Derry, not as an isolated point in the distance, but as a stepping stone towards the other two teams. In last year’s Ulster final, Armagh proved to be an equal match for Derry. Meanwhile, Tyrone and Monaghan may not be as formidable as they were at the decade’s inception, however, on a good day, they could challenge Derry who would need to step up their game. Donegal, under McGuinness’s leadership, is only starting to reveal their potential and their limit is yet to be determined.
Derry’s league title resonates beyond their local region. When we venture westward, we encounter teams from Galway and Mayo that possess enough confidence to step into a match with their guns blazing, being very capable opponents. About 20 months ago, Galway triumphed over Derry in a semi-final of the All-Ireland. Last summer saw Mayo defeating Galway in Salthill and Kerry in Killarney. Given Derry’s evident progress, it wouldn’t be entirely ridiculous to hypothesize that these other teams could have also improved.
The truth is, until we receive absolute proof, we are left with countless uncertainties. Anyone who forms stubborn assertions based on league results may need to contemplate their perspective. Due to several teams grappling with multiple absences for many matches, their relevance to the upcoming matches could be questionable.
Furthermore, our understanding of the current championship structure is still developing, making it tough to determine our exact position. We’ve clearly moved on from the ‘one loss means you’re out’ phase and transcended the era of the ‘qualifiers’. Today, it gives the impression that we are walking with direction, boldly stepping into the future. Nonetheless, the majority concur that we haven’t completely arrived yet.
It’s evident that the real crunch for top-tier counties doesn’t surface until the closing stages of the All-Ireland series group round, scheduled for the weekend of 15th/16th June. The primary take-away from the initial year of the new system implies that maintaining the status quo is viable until this point. Provided that the provincial runners-up make it to the Sam Maguire, the prospect of the leading dozen or so teams retiring from the contest is rendered more challenging than persevering. However, preparedness is crucial when it comes to the definitive group contest.
The most notable victims of this turn of events in 2023 were Galway, who entered their match against Armagh in Carrick-on-Shannon as Connacht champions with a pair of victories under their belt. Yet their season suddenly dissipated – a one-point defeat at the hands of Rory Grugan’s free, despite leading with only 68 minutes on the clock. Their departure was confirmed a week later, with a home defeat against Mayo.
The key to navigating the fresh format seems to lie in recognising the true starting point and making a head start at the ringing of the starter’s pistol. Monaghan’s redemption following a thrashing by Derry in Ulster, and standing toe-to-toe with Dublin going into the last 10 minutes of the All-Ireland semi-final, hinged on their holding on against the odds to that juncture. A last-minute draw against Derry in the group stage, a last-minute victory against Kildare, and then a last-minute draw followed by penalties against Armagh.
It was a nerve-wracking, championship-worthy spectacle. Amidst all the dissatisfaction regarding what the new structure lacks, it’s crucial not to overlook what it offers. Sure, the provincials may be outdated, yet the 2023 Ulster final was an entirely exhilarating day of sport, negating any case for its erasure from the Irish sports scene.
Yes, holding 24 group matches just to eliminate a mere four teams may seem unreasonable, yet the final round was a pure adrenaline rush. Yes, the concept of a 99-match championship just to deduce that Dublin and Kerry are the country’s premier teams may seem ludicrous, but the face-off between David Clifford and Mick Fitzsimons in late July was a sight worth witnessing.
The Tailteann Cup, under the spotlight of the big stage, is evolving into a formidable competition. It’s swiftly establishing itself as a significant event in the sports schedule. Over two occurrences, it has ushered eight diverse teams to the semi-finals in Croke Park. Be it players or managers further down the leagues, all perceive the Cup as a crucial developmental milestone. A suggestion would be that a Division Four team takes a shot at the Cup, to demonstrate that it’s not just the private playground of Division Two teams seeking a break. Wexford would be a team to monitor closely in the next run. Perhaps.
[Colm O’Rourke indulges in ‘exceptional experience’ as Meath secures Tailteann Cup]
Everything is up in the air. Everywhere you glance. Perhaps Dublin are faltering champions or they nearly bagged the league without demanding regular duty from a third of their championship team. Maybe Kerry is a one-player team or they’ve secured a midfield with Diarmuid and Joe O’Connor and will grow from that core base. Maybe it’s the year for Derry or they topped a league where everyone else was prepping in reverse for mid-June. Perhaps.
Several casual hopes, as the entire festival gears up for the new year. That teams which boast outstanding forwards – Armagh and Roscommon, to name a couple – get out there and display their talents with confidence and fearlessness. That any complaining coach should be promptly interrogated on his personal mistakes on the day. That Cork terminates an unproductive decade and sustains their positive trajectory.
Above all – this is less a casual hope and more a vehement personal plea – that someone in Croke Park alters the melancholic and depressing tune that plays after every match. The Hills of Donegal wasn’t played after the Division Two final last Sunday, Mary of Dungloe was the alternative choice. It’s enough to make you weep.
Moving forward then. Towards the football championship. The mighty but decaying hulk of the Irish sporting summer is preparing for another four-month journey across the nation. Despite its imperfections, the road is geared up to face it.
At some stage, it will arrive at a stadium nearby and regardless of our relentless moaning and grousing, it will still seem as though something instinctive, vibrant, and genuine has descended upon the town on that day. Something that holds a significance to us, something that counts. The climax will occur at Croke Park, on the most impactful day in the sporting calendar with the entire nation making peace with what’s about to occur.
We delude ourselves into thinking we can anticipate the form and structure of the forthcoming events. However, the tournament has a rich history of fooling overconfident fools and we are no strangers to it.
It’s guaranteed to catch us all off guard.