Keir Starmer paints a grim picture of the United Kingdom’s future, strongly asserting that the situation will deteriorate before it improves. Believing that the outgoing Conservative party must be held accountable for the continuous aggressive fiscal measures, Starmer emphasises the urgent necessity for Labour to demonstrate fiscal responsibility and competent governance.
His lack of optimistic discourse for future measures disturbs his followers, fearing it negatively impacts Labour’s quintuple missions stated pre-election – stimulation of economic expansion, investment in renewable energy, revitalising the National Health Service, ensuring safety in public spaces, and providing equal opportunities through skills development programmes.
Such harsh fiscal strategies pose a challenge for Labour as they seek to solidify their significant win against the Scottish National Party (SNP) in recent elections. The SNP lost a substantial portion of votes to Labour, who doubled its vote share, seizing 37 seats in Westminster versus the SNP’s mere nine – a stark contrast to the 2019 results which saw the SNP securing 48 seats and Labour only one.
This was the solitary region where Labour recorded an increased vote number compared to 2019, bolstering the argument that the Conservatives’ loss contributed more to their win. Despite a mediocre 59% voter turnout and extensive tactical voting, the disproportionate first-past-the-post voting system largely fortified Labour’s Westminster majority.
The attention now shifts towards the Scottish parliamentary elections in 2026, conducted under a more egalitarian proportional representation system. If Labour manages to replace the SNP as Scotland’s leading party, it will significantly reinforce the assertion that the idea of Scottish independence is off the table for the foreseeable future.
This potential outcome depends on two primary factors. Firstly, the delivery of SNP and Labour’s individual policies and their impact on Scottish citizens. Secondly, whether the current 50% support among Scots, predominantly younger demographic, for independence persists amidst such political manoeuvres.
Research has demonstrated a divide among Scots, split between those advocating for Scottish sovereignty and those favouring ongoing union with Britain, along with an extensive group of undecided individuals. Votes cast favouring Labour in July were primarily from individuals who, whilst preferring independence, place higher importance on pressing issues such as health, welfare, and education. The dynamics of left-right and nationalist-unionist politics were highlighted recently with a £500 million reduction in spending declared legally required by Scotland’s finance secretary, Shona Robison, due to Labour’s policies. Robison condemned Labour austerity as posing similar risks as Tory austerity, which Scottish Labour dismissed as mere shifting blame. However, a growing dissent among backbench Scottish Labour MPs is visible, with calls for fiscal prudence by Starmer under scrutiny, spurred by their tactical electoral rivalry with the SNP.
SNP leader, John Swinney, after experiencing a decrease in party membership and engaging in internal debates concerning evident party shortcomings during their recent conference, committed his first governmental programme to focus on child poverty reduction, economic growth, addressing the climate crisis, and enhancing public services. He argued that Scottish independence would pave the way for a “stronger and fairer country”. Over time, the SNP has evolved into a broad-based party attracting various groups across Scottish society, which has in turn limited its left-wing, Social Democrat identity. Public support for independence continues to favour the SNP, pushing them to demonstrate their ability to deliver on their promises of strength and fairness.
On the other hand, Scottish Labour relies on Starmer’s government for greater respect for devolution than the perceived domineering unionism of the Conservatives. Yet, dedicated unionist theorists acknowledge this would be challenging without extensive strategies supporting a multinational UK system within a largely centralised state. The achievement of this is further complicated by dire economic situations requiring Labour to also focus on English interests. Therefore, it is too premature to predict that the SNP’s current weakness is permanent, thus ensuring the UK’s sustained union. Latest polls show the SNP leading Labour slightly, suggesting that the fate of the 2026 election, including its bearing on the constitutional question, is still uncertain.
A plausible future scenario for the coming ten years may involve a two-term Labour government attempting to improve functionality, coherence, and equality across each English region and devolved nations, yet facing restrictions due to economic recovery. In this system, Northern Ireland will be a part, with this State simultaneously contemplating potential reunification. Consequently, they will get embroiled in this political milieu while preparing for a transformed Ireland that might originate from the breakup of the UK or the reformation of the UK union.
Equipment for the ongoing functional and emotional interrelations between the pair of islands, complete with new establishments and connections, is something any outcome would need to provide for. As such, Ireland and Scotland likely stand to see their politics align more closely over the next decade.