The Republic of Ireland’s population is not merely a topic of statistical curiosity, considering the recent significance of immigration and housing matters. As stated by the European Commission, there was a record-breaking increase in the country’s population by 3.5% in the previous year.
Data from the AMECO (the European Commission’s Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs’ annual macroeconomic database) indicates that the total population of Ireland rose to 5,348,700 by the close of 2023, marking an increase of 183,000 from the figure of 5,165,000 recorded at the end of 2022.
While the European Commission refrains from speculating on the reasons for such an upsurge in population, Ireland’s Central Statistics Office has approximated that over 100,000 Ukrainian refugees entered the country between February 2022 and the conclusion of that year.
Should this be confirmed, it would surpass the historic record for a population growth set between 2006 and 2007 at 2.95% during Ireland’s economic boom, often referred to as the Celtic Tiger period. As noted by economist David Higgins, a 3.5% annual population growth would rank among the highest ever recorded for a single nation.
“We have not only achieved our greatest ever population increase but also the highest growth rate for any European country in 2023,” Higgins declared, equating Ireland’s 3.5% increase to a similar trend experienced by Malta in 2018 following large numbers of asylum seekers arriving there.
However, there is a discrepancy between the European Commission’s data and that of Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency. Eurostat purports that the population saw an even greater rise of 4.2% in 2023. This uptick from 5,060,000 at the beginning of the year to 5,271,400 by year-end signifies a substantial increase of 211,000.
There appears to be a disagreement with the figures published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), which measures annual population growth starting from April. It suggested a 1.9 per cent surge in population, which translates to an additional 97,600 individuals from the 5,184,000 recorded in April 2022, to a total of 5,281,600 as of April the following year.
The increase resulted from a natural growth of 19,000, calculated from the difference between births and deaths, alongside a net migration of 77,600. The CSO reported that in the past year, approximately 141,600 immigrants, mostly Ukrainian refugees, moved into the country, while around 64,000 citizens left.
However, in comparison to the official CSO census for April 2022, which noted a lower figure of 5,149,139, there appears to be a discrepancy. The reasons given for this difference include the absence from the country of individuals typically resident in the state, who are not counted in the census when it occurs.
When probed about the AMECO statistics, a representative from the CSO refrained from giving an explicit response, simply stating that AMECO’s data is grounded in future projections set for the close of 2023, rather than actual figures. She added that a more accurate portrait of the population growth within the Republic won’t be accurately understood until September. This is when the CSO plans to release its data on the population amount of the state, accounting for the 12 months leading up to April.
AMECO has projected a sustained growth in the Irish population throughout this year and the next, though at a decelerated pace of 1.5 per cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively.