Figures reveal that over the past three years, the population in Ireland has surged by an average of 100,000 each year, a growth far beyond the expectations set in earlier national planning models. This surge can be partially attributed to robust economic growth attracting foreign workers, as well as a notable influx of immigrants from Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. The current population of 5.38 million significantly surpasses recent predictions by the Government, thereby placing housing, education, health and childcare services under immense pressure, and elevating immigration to a sensitive political issue.
Two primary factors contribute to this population growth. Firstly, even with an ageing demographic, births outstrip deaths by approximately 19,400, contributing to a fifth of the total increase of 98,700 within 12 months leading up to April 2024. Secondly, the incoming population greatly overshadows the outgoing, which accounts for the remaining 80% of the increase.
Despite a dip in mortgage interest rates, citizens are advised to consider whether to save or overpay on mortgages with the extra funds. The Dublin hotel scene faces an ascension in rates, predicted in the light of Oasis reunion concerts, even though the full costs are yet to be planned.
Additional data reports the highest immigration figure since 2008, with 149,200 new immigrants within the year. This has been influenced by a wave of economic migrants from countries including Brazil, and a significant number of returnees, mainly Irish citizens, summing up to 30,000, alongside 27,000 from other EU countries and 5,400 from the UK. A large portion of 86,800 arrived from other countries considerably multiplied by refugees fleeing Ukraine.
In the past year, emigration from Ireland reached its highest level since 2015, with over 69,000 individuals leaving, more than half of which are Irish. The year also saw a surge in emigration to Australia, with figures more than doubling from the previous year to around 10,600.
Significantly, net migration, the difference between the numbers of people immigrating and emigrating, almost reached 80,000. This figure has only been surpassed once in the past 70 years, and that was in 2007.
The rates at which the population is growing are now outpacing the projections from the 2018 National Planning Framework, which is currently being revised. The accelerated population growth brings with it increased pressure on housing, public services, and infrastructure, making these some of the most pressing issues Ireland is facing at present.
The unexpected economic growth that the country has experienced since 2015 has greatly contributed to this situation. This growth has been primarily powered by large amounts of foreign direct investment, creating well-paying jobs that are attracting immigrants. Now, about 25% of jobs in fields like health services are held by foreigners.
Moreover, the influx of Ukrainian refugees in recent years has significantly added to the number of immigrants. Coping with the growing population, therefore, represents a pivotal economic and societal challenge for Ireland.
Unless the Irish government expedites its efforts significantly, the nation’s future economic growth could be jeopardised, and meeting climate targets will require large investments in infrastructure. Additionally, these developments are stimulating debates on immigration and are expected to be major talking points in the forthcoming general election. Notably, this conundrum of unanticipated economic success and the influx of migrants and asylum-seeking individuals from Ukraine and other regions present a complex situation for Ireland.