Setting housing goals that will inform regional policies is far from simple. There are, however, two unambiguous factors. Firstly, Ireland is not constructing an adequate quantity of new residences, with notable deficits and shortcomings in certain areas, regarding both the types of homes and their locations. Secondly, these targets must be malleable and frequently re-evaluated due to the multiple uncertainties inherent in the process.
These intricate details may not become a focal point in the imminent general election campaign, which is likely to highlight pledges of a particular number of homes to be constructed during the tenure of the incoming government. In the interim, the current Government has committed to presenting new objectives in the coming weeks. These updates to the National Planning Framework will assess not only the projected requirements but also the ideal locations for these homes, which is consequential. It seems likely that an annual total of approximately 50,000 will be selected.
This acknowledgement that the objective must exceed the 33,000 target set out in the Housing for All plan is positive. Furthermore, the immediate requirement could well be greater still. A prognosis from estate agents Sherry FitzGerald, proposing that an additional 62,000 homes might be necessary annually in the short term, is also worth consideration. Equally, the wide consensus that there is a need for smaller homes as well as more social and affordable housing is significant.
Account must also be taken for the accumulated demand driven by individuals intending to vacate their current homes but unable to do so. A recent report by MyHome.ie claimed that, compared to the UK and taking population and house size into account, Ireland’s housing supply was deficient by around 200,000.
Predicting short-term housing demands necessitates considering demographic variables, including net migration and the replacement of older houses. Integrating this data into a comprehensive plan for the required types and locations of houses is complex. However, having a robust foundation for setting these targets simplifies the subsequent necessary alterations. At present, the policy appears too erratic and imprecise.