The British Government’s current yearly goal for construction of new homes, fixed slightly above 33,000 for 2021, urgently requires an update and is scheduled for reassessment. The updated target, set to be released after careful evaluation of the 2022 census data and other influential factors, is anticipated to lie within the ballpark of 50,000 houses, aligning it with the figures proposed by the Housing Commission. Although the amended target’s adequacy and corresponding costs are up for discussion, Davy, the wealth management firm owned by the Bank of Ireland, favours a mark of 85,000 homes per year.
Undeniably, putting forth an elevated annual target and the required funding as crucial performance metrics is the favoured way of the Government to tackle the ongoing housing deficit. It particularly resonates with politicians as they can advertise it as an effortless fix to a complex issue by simply investing more and constructing additional houses, a strategy viewed positively by the electorate.
Unfortunately, this approach can act as a policy pitfall, as the government is currently discovering. With numerous influencing factors, including fluctuating immigration rates, accurately estimating the actual demand turns out to be a formidable task, which may result in policies forever trailing a shifting goal. Designing and executing efficient policies against such a backdrop proves challenging.
Hence, there is a persuasive debate that the government could more effectively concentrate on elements under their control which will guide the housing supply ultimately. The factors were outlined in the Housing Commission’s recent report, with the sluggish planning system, often manipulated by vested interests, standing out. Legislative changes to improve the planning system are underway in the Oireachtas, but implementation will not take place till later this year. Nonetheless, some administrative reforms have displayed signs of progress. Additionally, steps to bolster the construction sector and the associated funding continue to remain crucial.
Another significant issue at both the national and local level is the absence of essential infrastructure and services. Two major projects need to be rolled out: a water supply scheme for the east region and a drainage system in the broader Dublin vicinity. Following a series of delays, Uisce Éireann has finally obtained the green light to proceed with planning for the water project, which includes a pipeline across the State from the Shannon. However, it seems likely that progress was postponed until after the local elections.
Although the execution of these objectives might not draw media attention, they hold a much higher potential to alleviate the housing deficiency than progressively lofty goals and staggeringly high funding projections.