“Irish Envoy’s UK Election Bet Success”

Martin Fraser, Ireland’s Ambassador to the UK, previously held the position of secretary general to the Department of the Taoiseach, making him Ireland’s foremost civil servant prior to his posting in London. With a two-decade track record in Anglo-Irish affairs, his expertise on UK politics is sharp and he possesses a robust contact base.

Any statements from the ever-prudent Fraser on topics related to Westminster ought to be considered seriously. On the 16th of May, he was the host of an event at the Irish Embassy in Grosvenor Place, honouring the Journalists’ Charity, established in 1864 by Charles Dickens in order to aid journalists and their dependants during challenging times.

The aim of this event was to acknowledge and applaud the contributions of British and Irish journalists, especially in an epoch when the relevance of journalism in society has been amplified. The guest of honour for the event was Sky News’ Kay Burley, whose life and career were discussed by the BBC’s Frances Finn.

Conversation during the gathering veered towards the potential timing of the approaching election. Kay gave an assured statement that Rishi Sunak would call an election on the 14th of November. She further shared that Ambassador Fraser had suggested to her that the election would occur in July.

Following the official proceedings, a handful of the journalists and diplomats in attendance adjourned to a nearby pub, the Star Tavern in Belgravia, renowned for being the location where the Great Train Robbery scheme was conceived.

Kay Burley opted not to join them but later made social media posts about her experience at the Embassy. She mentioned among other things, the speculation regarding UK elections and Ambassador Fraser’s wager with Paddy Power at 9/1 odds that the election would take place in July. As events unfolded, Fraser was proven correct and it emerged that he really had taken those odds at the bookies.

Good on Kay using social media to keep us informed. When it was announced on Wednesday that a sudden election was imminent, she posted a picture of Martin Fraser on twitter, indicating that he’d predicted the potential 4th July general election date.
During an engaging interview at the Embassy, it was revealed by broadcaster Burley herself that she’s never given her vote to any party. This neutrality, she insists, allows her to confront any politically affiliated individual with a clear conscience, knowing she has never supported them or their opposing party through the ballot box.
Focusing on Europe now – has Ambassador Fraser gambled any predictions regarding the outcome of Southern Ireland’s European elections?
We’re hearing buzz that independent TD, Michael McNamara, is performing admirably. Solid words of endorsement have come from senior political figures suggesting he might secure seat. The odds from betting sources about his win have been reduced too.
Here’s where it gets engaging. What if McNamara, once serving as a TD for the Labour party, secures a European election seat, will he aim for the Dáil again? And if this legal practitioner-cum-farmer manages to retain his position in Co. Clare, who would replace him in Brussels?
An alluring merger of global political benefits introduces Mairín McGrath of Clonmel, daughter of Tipperary South TD Mattie McGrath, as Michael’s immediate alternate. Independent councillor Mairín could likely retain her position in the Cahir local elections, but she might also step into European politics, representing the McGrath political faction.
Turning over to Mattie now, he succeeds at acquiring our ’email of the week’ award, narrowly overcoming Fianna Fáil’s rather unfulfilled Ireland Midlands-North-West candidate, Niall Blaney.
It was on Friday when Senator Niall brought forth the biggest tantrum this campaign has seen to date at their European campaign kick-off in Dublin, angrily lambasting his party’s lack of support for him relative to the other candidates. A video recording from the press meeting of Senator Blaney’s outrage was stopped only by the awkward presence of Cynthia Ní Mhurchú (Ireland South), acting as a thin, tense barrier between him and a visibly embarrassed Tánaiste.

Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien, with mouth firmly shut, stands alongside Niall. He gives the impression of extreme discomfort, as if wishing for the ground to miraculously consume him.
Blaney turns up, ready for a squabble.
On Thursday, his team decided to re-circulate a prior statement he released, expressing his displeasure over being treated as a lower-priority option for more highly-regarded competitors. “We are not just an add-on, we’re not just a second-division region,” he voiced.
The re-posted email touching upon “burgeoning divisions within the party leadership” helpfully included, “Senator Blaney is noticeably upset over the course of the campaign and is ready for interview.”
Engaging stuff indeed.
However, the emails from Mattie McGrath were a completely different ballgame.
The first came in at 2.19am on Wednesday, titled with a quote attributed to Mattie: “The Government places Middle East above Middle Ireland”.
The announcement of Ireland recognising Palestine, which took place later that day, was written off as “a political gimmick” amidst ongoing Irish matters that remain unresolved and disregarded.
“While in Leinster, Deputy McGrath voiced his worries” when he “forcefully denounced” this news, labelling it as a “ploy to get global attention”.
Brian Ó Domhnaill, the economic policy and communications advisor to the Rural Independent Group, sent the statement that deeply criticised the Government.
Following this, the Taoiseach, Tánaiste and Green Party leader made their historic announcement from the steps of the Government Buildings.
A second unusual email arrived from Ó Domhnaill, a former Fianna Fáil turned Independent Senator, over 12 hours later. He had relocated to Canada a few years prior, which could account for the late-night email.
“Upon further consideration and looking at changing situations, we have decided to retract this press release. The decision is strategic and not because of any factual errors, but a decision arrived at after thorough thought.
We are grateful for your comprehension and assistance in preventing further circulation of this press release.”
But if it has already been disseminated, what’s the purpose? (Though it does seem to have been overlooked.)
An apt illustration of the Streisand effect.

The explosive statement the authorities were keen to keep undisclosed suddenly made headlines. It was Louise O’Reilly’s triumphant moment. On Tuesday, she entered the Dáil with a single purpose. The TD representing Dublin Fingal was curious about the Taoiseach’s perspective on houses priced at €550,000 being deemed as ‘affordable.’

Her goal was to create a victorious moment for Sinn Féin’s social media. With a standard preamble where she demanded a fresh approach, fresh aspirations, and fresh housing policies, because the existing government plan was failing, Louise jumped into it. “Taoiseach, are you seriously suggesting that a home priced at €550,000 is affordable? As that’s what my constituents are expected to pay, and they are being informed by you, your minister, and your administration that it’s within reach,” she articulated, laying the groundwork for her plan.

But as Simon Harris set out to provide his explanation about the numerous affordable housing initiatives, Louise swiftly cut him off, insisting she was specifically referring to Fingal. Turning her gaze at the Taoiseach from her spot on the other side of the floor, she reiterated her query, “Is a home priced at €550,000 affordable in your opinion?”

As he stood up ready to respond again, Louise had to act swiftly as Simon Harris was known for his fast speaking pace. “Not many individuals can afford a €550,000 home,” he began. And she jumped in. “Thank you!” she exclaimed. Her plan was successful.

Ignoring Simon’s protestations, she reminded him that it was indeed stated on the website as an “affordable” home, leaving the Taoiseach taken aback. They could either ask the question or respond to it, not both, he stated, trying to restore order. Nevertheless, Louise was accomplished. The task was done. She had received the answer she sought. Despite the Ceann Comhairle’s exasperation, she had caught her ‘gotcha’ moment.

“Goodness, have mercy.”
It was a constant back-and-forth.
Simon, bewildered, persistently cried, “You interrupted me!”
Louise, in her glory.
Just needed to say one last thing. It was time for her closing and decisive argument.
“Five hundred and fifty thousand euro is not sustainable, as acknowledged by the Taoiseach,” she stated firmly.
She then offered a cheeky wink.
Objective achieved.
The Taoiseach exhaled a resigned sigh, before discussing the various affordable housing programs and assistance the government has rolled out in Fingal.
But it didn’t really matter.
Soon after, this trimmed and polished exchange was uploaded and available for all to see online.
The video cut off just before Louise’s audacious wink.
Puppet theatre
A colourful array of speakers passed in and out of the stand at the Oireachtas arts and media committee.
Amongst them on Wednesday, were the iconic characters, Elmo and Peppa Pig.
Telegael, a company based out in Connemara, were invited to the latest session on regional TV, film and animation production. They showed a sizzle reel alongside their proposal.
Which meant that not only Elmo and Peppa Pig were seen in Leinster House, but they also made a guest appearance on Oireachtas TV.
“Well, they’re not the first puppets to testify at our committee”, observed a committee member once the session had ended.

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