Climate researchers from Maynooth University (MU) warn that Ireland is likely to see an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events, affecting wider areas with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius. The prediction model they’ve developed recently offers more accurate forecasts about the scope of Irish heatwaves, posing greater challenges than the sporadic temperature rises of the past. In fact, their research suggests that the area covered by these heatwaves has doubled recently.
The scientists’ conclusions, drawn from data sourced from weather stations, highlight the pressing need for societal changes in response to more frequent extreme temperature events. These changes will deeply affect public health, farming, financial stability, and the robustness of infrastructure, according to Prof Andrew Parnell, the lead researcher on the project.
The team has predicted that temperatures exceeding 34 degrees, a figure not yet observed in Ireland, will advance from being a once-in-1,600-years occurrence to a once-in-28-years occurrence from 1942 to 2020. Furthermore, they predict that a “temperature event” of 33 degrees in Dublin’s Phoenix Park has increased from being a once-in-180-years occasion in 1942 to a once-in-9-years event in 2020.
The model for predicting the frequency, scale, and geographical reach of extreme summer temperature incidents in Ireland was a collaborative project undertaken by a team including Dr Dáire Healy, Professor Peter Thorne of MU’s ICARUS Climate Research Centre, and Professor Jonathan Tawn of Lancaster University.
Professor Parnell commented: “While we commonly focus on average temperature changes and particularly on the Paris Climate Agreement’s 1.5-degree goal, our research has shown that the fluctuations in extreme temperatures are much more significant than the changes in average temperature. This is something very worrying.”
In comparison to the 1940s and 1950s, extreme heat events will occur more frequently, with higher temperature readings and covering larger areas due to anthropogenic global warming. Professor Parnell elaborated that these incidents wouldn’t be limited to specific weather stations like Phoenix Park. The highest temperature ever logged in Ireland was 33.3 degrees, recorded at Kilkenny Castle on June 26th, 1887.
Dr. Healy reported that spatial heatwave phenomena exceeding society’s critical thresholds have significantly increased in size, specifically doubling for temperatures above 28 degrees. This trend escalates with even hotter temperatures.
The methodologies and mathematical models used involve handling vast data sets. This facilitates the invention of sophisticated maps that recognise patterns when extreme weather events take place. Such maps can therefore serve as prediction tools for weather patterns, greatly assisting the health sector and farmers, Prof. Parnell pointed out.
According to the scientific team, the model’s predictive ability for spatial patterns of extreme scenarios also provides policymakers and stakeholders with a formidable tool. This tool can help to decrease risks and strategise for probable future climatic conditions.
Plans for the next research phase include evaluating repercussions for emergency services and assessing potential crop impacts, particularly for oats in regards to growth and disease susceptibility.
The team’s conclusions were recently presented to The Royal Statistical Society during a meeting focusing on the statistical facets of climate change.