London transforms into a distinct cacophony on nights when an England match is scheduled. The city’s pubs brim over, seething with throngs of lads belting out ‘Three Lions’ in dissonant tunes, fuelled by copious drinks, even before the sun has sunk. To those familiar with the city’s rhythm, this post-work ritual, despite its intensity, along with the fluttering St George’s flag and the collective cheer of a score by the home team, only adds to its cultural charm – especially after continuous rainy days have been replaced by radiant sunshine.
The past week has seen densely packed pub conversations veer towards the recent general election’s results, and attempts to decipher them. The focus has been to understand whether England, and by extension the UK, has become more right-wing or left-leaning in its political sentiments. By purely looking at parliamentary composition, one could argue it has skewed more towards the left than it has been over the previous five decades. However, an intricate analysis of vote count and seat allocation presents an ambiguous picture due to the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral model.
The Labour party managed to bag 34% of the total votes, leading to their control over an approximately 64% share of the 650 seats. While the Conservatives, despite accruing 24% of the vote, were relegated to a low of 121 seats, a record poor performance since 1761. Surprisingly, only the Liberal Democrats present a somewhat proportionate representation, holding about 12% of the vote and 11% of the parliamentary seats. On the other hand, the UK’s Reform, reborn from Ukip, procured a noteworthy 14% of the total votes, but sadly own only about 1% of the seats; the same as Sinn Féin, who only garnered about 1% of the national vote. The BBC’s comprehensive analysis of the elections over the past hundred years revealed the recent Labour victory to be the most imbalanced, with a 30 percentage-point discrepancy between votes and seats.
Across London, the general consensus seems to favour the eviction of the Tories, with less concern regarding the execution of this objective or its implication for the nation. The prevailing mood in the Labour camp can best be described as a sigh of relief rather than triumphant exultation, with no one serenading ‘Things Can only Get Better’ outside the Number 10 residence. The reality is that this election saw the Conservatives forfeit their reign more than it saw a clear triumph for Labour. It’s interesting to note that the tussle between the Tories and Reform resulted in the latter poaching more Conservative votes than Labour did.
Ireland, compared to the UK’s fiscal challenges, has a wealth of income that can be seen as almost awkward. Traditional job roles have become obsolete, replaced with positions not previously conceived. Wage increments will be essential for maintaining societal cohesion, even if it is strange to think of Aer Lingus pilots as the leaders of this change. Europe-wide right-wing unity could be seriously harmed by deep economic disagreements.
On reflection, one could suggest that the Conservatives were hit harder by the Reform party than Labour. Following 14 years of disorderly Tory administration, which has seen a backslide in almost every economic and social indicator, this isn’t exactly a compliment to Labour. This point bears repeating: after securing victory, Keir Starmer managed to attract a smaller percentage of the public vote than Jeremy Corbyn did. The transfer of four million voters from the Conservatives to Nigel Farage’s Reform party has become the central focus for political analysts. Farage is a figure that neither the moderate-right nor the left seems able to topple.
That being said, power is the name of the game in politics and Labour, with its formidable majority, seems invincible until the decade’s end. However, how can they address the continuing decline of the UK without financial resources? The key issue at hand is the shortage of available funds.
When one compares UK’s fiscal issues and it’s deficit amounting to about 2% of GDP to Ireland’s almost ungainly amount of revenue, the difference is stark. What sets Ireland apart is the multinational corporations, the inward investment model and the fusion of American capital base with local abilities. Without these factors, Ireland could have been a mirror-image of the UK, only smaller.
As it pertains to non-multinational productivity and the housing crisis in the context of rising rents, soaring house prices and accommodation scarcity, alongside a lower than average count of hospital beds and medical workers per capita, UK and Ireland deviate significantly from the European norm. In the absence of funding from the US, we would likely experience similar societal issues to those seen across the Atlantic. The main distinction lies in our ability to financially tackle these issues, a luxury the UK does not enjoy.
Interestingly, despite the perpetual climb of tax revenue from multinational companies, a surprising amount of people refer to our corporation tax earnings as an unexpected “windfall”. The meaning behind this term is unclear. Will this wealth simply vanish? Will someone snatch it away from us? Comprehending the reluctance to acknowledge that these financial surplus are actual and tangible is rather challenging.
For the past decade, financial experts and economic forecasters have annually cautioned us of the volatile, fragile nature of corporation tax income, hinting that it could evaporate at any moment. However, year on year, it has only grown stronger. This can be attributed to a fundamental fact – the tax system has been designed to generate surplus. Yet surprisingly, the very architects of this surplus-generating tax system appear to lack faith in their own blueprint.
When a minor nation establishes a tax system that levies the wealth of more affluent nations utilised within its territory, it will inevitably produce a surplus. On implementing this on a large scale, an enormous surplus will be generated. If it manages to retain its appeal to these substantial capitals, the surplus will persist. However, if these surpluses are not invested in enhancing the living standards of its populace – which includes the management and skilled employees of these multinational companies, it risks undermining the model itself. Nothing more than local inertia can derail this economic model.
Failing to construct a metro in Dublin, finance complimentary childcare, or build 60,000 homes per annum could endanger Ireland’s successful economic and social model, particularly if the nation’s surplus isn’t utilised correctly. The funds for these projects are available so it seems self-evident to use them in this way. Surprisingly, it’s not over-ambition that causes an economy to overheat, but lack thereof. Property prices decrease when housing is built, while traffic congestion decreases when public transport is enhanced rather than encouraging individuals to purchase more vehicles. Economies overheat due to an insufficiency of building, not an excess. Hence, the expenditure of this money is crucial now.
Ireland has created an economic and social blueprint that utilises foreign funds to create Irish wealth, and the state needs to pilot this blueprint to safeguard it. This modus operandi aligns perfectly with economic growth strategies. However, to optimise this opportunity, Ireland needs to cultivate a growth mindset, which involves changing the rigid notion that tax revenue is a “windfall”. The tax revenues have been steadily increasing as a planned result of policy implementations over the past three decades.
A perspective from the UK paints a favourable picture of Ireland, with issues that would be well-received by the incoming Labour government. For instance, too much money, substantial tax surpluses, and politicians having to decide where to spend rather than where to cut. These surpluses have reached a level akin to oil-rich nations, with the important difference being that oil depletes while, given we can continue to draw in international capital and technology, international money inflows could potentially sustain for generations. At least there is one area where we can proudly claim to be the best in Europe.