In a research not yet made public by the Housing Commission, it is suggested that Ireland could require the construction of 62,000 residences each year till 2050 to satisfy anticipated demand. This estimated figure is nearly twice the yearly goal set in the Government’s comprehensive plan for the current decade.
Provided to Housing Minister, Darragh O’Brien, in November of the previous year, the study proposes that between 42,000 and 62,000 new residences are required annually. In the Housing for All policy under Mr. O’Brien, an average of 33,000 residences is set to be constructed per annum until 2030.
The Housing Commission, set up to explore the issues surrounding housing policy, based the study on potential outcomes concerning the total population size, average household size, and the rate of obsoleteness of the existing number of houses.
Analysing eventualities where the population reaches between 6.25 million to 7 million by 2050, the research also considers possible changes in household size. They may remain as is or get closer to the average found in other countries – between 2.4 and two individuals per household.
In the study, the average lifespan for a typical house existing in the previous year is anywhere between 150 to 333 years. The Commission believes that from the most recent data available, the estimated range of housing requirements to 2050 could be between 42,000 and 62,000 residences annually.
As migration has been above 10% of the higher-end official prediction since 2017, not including recent migrants from Ukraine, population growth may drive the base requirement for houses to a figure ranging from 35,000 to 40,000 annually. Population movement affects current needs and forecasts, increasing birth rates as well.
The research also argues for a necessity of 7,000-17,000 houses annually to replace those built before 2022 that become obsolete.
Current assessments of housing requirements are flawed in their belief that household sizes will remain largely unchanged till 2040, the study proposes. If this holds, Ireland will solidify its place as an anomaly in Europe where other countries have smaller households.
The research suggests that though household size in Ireland has consistently decreased, aligning with, but later than, its European counterparts, this trend halted in the 2010s due to a slump in new home constructions. The study advises that policies should encourage this alignment with peer countries, as opposed to setting targets on the assumption of larger household sizes.
The paper presents what it thinks is the most likely scenario: a population of 6.75 million by 2050, existing homes lasting for 200 years, and reduced household sizeso leading to a demand for 42,000-62,000 new dwellings each year. The lowest forecast indicates a requirement for 21,000 homes, while the maximum projection suggests an annual need for 72,000 homes.
As the nation’s leaders have hinted, there may be a necessity to augment housing targets that are presently under scrutiny. Previous comments from Taoiseach Leo Varadkar imply that adjusting the targets upward is logical due to demographic pressures, as well as the arrival and expected permanent settlement of individuals from Ukraine in Ireland.
Speaking to the Dáil, Mr Varadkar admitted that the government did not succeed in achieving its social housing targets last year, although it exceeded its overall objectives for new homes. In response to remarks by Social Democrats co-leader Catherine Murphy about the government falling short of its initial 9,000 target (which was later scaled back to 8,000), he revealed that 6,500 new social dwellings were available. He expressed his ambition to beat this year’s 29,000 new home completions target.
The Taoiseach’s spokesperson later informed that the concluding statistics for social housing are still under preparation and are expected to surpass the preliminary estimate of 6,500. He added that this value would probably be the highest yield since the 1970s.