During the 1950s, there was serious conjecture that the population of Ireland might diminish nearly to extinction, leaving only sparse seaside settlements subsisting on farming and fishing. The narrative of “The Vanishing Irish”, also the title of a publication, though seeming exaggerated in retrospect, mirrored the sensibility of a country beleaguered by emigration and economic austerity. The depiction of the final inhabitants of the Blasket Islands abandoning the country’s farthest west archipelago in 1953 lingered as a bleak omen.
The population of Ireland had been experiencing a close to fatal downturn since the Famine. The total island populace in 1841 was approximated at 8.175 million (potentially even higher). A decade later in 1851, it had plummeted to just over 6.5 million. By 1881 it was down to 5 million and at the beginning of the 20th century, it had slipped below 4.5 million.
Achieving independence didn’t reverse the trend. The population of the Irish Free State had contracted to 2.9 million by 1936, even though the pre-Famine population of the 26 counties was 6.5 million. A further exodus in the 1950s caused the Republic’s population to dip to a record low of 2.8 million in 1961. The census of 1966 was the first to register an augmentation in population since the Famine.
The demographic pattern of Ireland is exceptional within the European context. It is the singular country to have a smaller present-day population than it did 180 years ago. Yet, it’s the only country whose population is 80% greater than it was six decades ago. Despite this recent surge, it’s not expected that the Republic’s population will exceed its pre-Famine total of 6.5 million until 2050, thereby making the Famine a 200-year event in population terms.
The unique Irish demographic situation was further influenced by the fact that it was overlooked by the significant population trends of the last century.
The post-war baby boom that propelled significant population growth in the US and Europe didn’t touch Ireland. Similarly, when birth control became widely accepted and women began working more in the 70s and 80s, resulting in a decrease in birth rates, Ireland exhibited a contrary trend as its birth rates increased.
Despite our neighbours in Europe witnessing a net inward migration during the 1990s, Ireland suffered net outward migration due to economic mismanagement prevalent during the 70s and 80s. It’s worthwhile for historians to remember that the Celtic Tiger was preceded by a sluggish Celtic Tortoise.
The turn of this century has gradually diminished Ireland’s uniqueness and aligned us more with global developments. The Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) most recent population data demonstrates that Ireland’s natural birth rate increase, which signifies the balance of births over deaths, dwindled to its lowest in nearly three decades in the year leading to April this year.
John McCartney, the director and head of research at BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland, attributes this decline to changing lifestyle choices, late childbirth, smaller families, and a drop in the number of women within the prime childbearing years.
The populace’s advancing age profile, made possible by enhanced medical care and healthier living, is proceeding at an unprecedented pace. A rise in the retiree population coupled with a proportional decrease in the working class carries significant financial and societal implications. It’s a Damocles sword looming over most Western nations.
The most notable transition perhaps is the transformation of the historic plague of emigration into record-breaking immigration figures. The CSO highlighted that over 100,000 individuals immigrated to Ireland for the third consecutive 12-month period.
A population can primarily increase in one of two ways – through a natural increase defined by surplus births over deaths or through an influx of new individuals. The statistics reveal that net inward migration, amounting to 79,300, contributed to 80.3 per cent of the total population growth. The share of population growth due to immigration reached an all-time high, surpassing even the 2007 figure (73.3 per cent) observed post-EU expansion.
The CSO reported that a majority of 91 per cent of the net inward migration is originating from ‘non-traditional’ places, which doesn’t include the countries of EU, UK, US, Canada, and Australia.
Whilst, individual ‘non-traditional’ sources were not specified by the agency, it can be inferred that a large proportion could comprise Ukrainian refugees escaping Russian hostility.
Nonetheless, this influx might not be a consistent trend as it’s likely reflective of the events preceding alterations to the support mechanisms for Ukrainian arrivals. This current influx could potentially be a transient episode related to the warfare rather than the onset of an enduring pattern of work-motivated European migration.