Hidden within an analysis by the Office of Public Works (OPW) in 2018, an alarming appraisal of the peril extreme flooding would pose to Dublin was noted. The consequences of changing climates in Ireland are most likely to take the form of such floods.
The “Flood Risk Management Plan for the Liffey and Dublin Bay River Basin” compiled by the OPW identifies danger zones in Dublin, comprising not only coastal towns like Howth, Sutton, Clontarf but also sectors of Dublin City such as Ringsend. Furthermore, also in the danger zone are inland locales prone to river or pluvial flooding, including Blessington, Baldonnel, Clane, and Leixlip.
The report provides estimated monetary impacts for possible future flood episodes, barring any mitigation actions. At the time, untoward weather causing floods was already costing city bodies €25 million annually.
The report outlines a ‘mid-range future scenario’ flooding incident which is expected every ten years, marked by a 20% rainfall increase and a 0.5-metre sea-level rise, would escalate costs to a staggering €333 million, with nearly 2,800 homes potentially affected.
In an extreme scenario – a one-in-100-year incident with increased rainfall by 30% and sea levels rising by a metre, the financial toll soars to an estimated €2.9 billion, inflicting damage on roughly 15,500 residences and close to 3,000 commercial properties.
Yet, the real worry is that such devastating incidents, which appear rare at a glance, are predicted to occur with heightened frequency due to the increase in global temperatures. Experts predict that by 2100, these could become an annual occurrence as a result of continuous deep ocean warming, as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Predictions by the IFAC state that by 2030, falling fuel and energy use taxes, in the wake of transitioning to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, could deplete government tax revenues by a substantial €2.5 billion annually.
The ever-increasing sea levels could lead to the occurrence of extreme sea level events, previously seen only once per hundred years, on an annual basis in over half of the tide gauge locations by 2100, according to a report last year. This will further expose coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and populations to increased risk post-2100.
Moreover, the risk assessment analysis by the OPW is limited to Dublin, while experts warn Cork, Limerick, and various other regions are in greater danger and may face heavier damages leading to substantial financial burden for the exchequer. Maynooth University’s Emeritus Professor of Geography, John Sweeney, a leading figure in Irish climatology, has indicated that while Ireland has so far been fortunate in terms of storm surges and depressions, a time may come when luck runs out, resulting in significant problems.
The professor used the example of Midleton’s flooding in Co Cork last October to illustrate his point. He explains that even though the town was spared major damage because of low tide, the increasing trend in storm surges and severe weather conditions due to rising sea levels can’t be ignored. The heavy rainfall, which led to flooding in Midleton and other parts of East Cork, is now twice as likely due to current global temperatures compared to pre-industrial times.
The annual calendar is now marked by extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, cold snaps, and wildfires, largely brought about by escalating global temperatures. The World Meteorological Organisation highlighted this issue last week, noting that every major global climate record was shattered last year, with 2024 expected to be even worse. The Organisation emphasized the worrying trend of rising sea temperatures and diminishing sea ice.
In its yearly Global Climate Status report, the United Nations (UN) climatic agency stated that mean temperatures soared to the highest point in 174 years of record-keeping, registering 1.45 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels.
The EU’s climatological watchdog service, Copernicus, earlier in the month signaled that over the past twelve months – extending from March 2023 to February 2024 – the worldwide mean temperature was at a record high of 1.56 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels.
Alarmingly, this situates our planet, at least for now, above the critical 1.5 degrees threshold that scientists caution could trigger more severe and erratic climatic phenomena.
Foraying into the fiscal aspect of climate change – it’s equivalent to imposing another budget on public funds. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Ifac) has been leveraging the results of flood risk studies done by the OPW in its endeavours to project and call attention to the probable fiscal consequences of global warming in Ireland.
Predictions from this supervisory body suggest that due to decreased fuel and energy use taxes as we transition to green renewable energy and electric vehicles, Government tax collections could see a downturn of about €2.5 billion each year by 2030. Furthermore, grants to aid agricultural transition, retrofitting and other supports could elevate Government spending by €1.6 billion to €3 billion annually from 2026 through 2030.
These fiscal hardships do not account for the projected outlays required for the erection and bolstering of flood defenses. Absent the latter, we risk amassing billions in flood-related damages annually, with one estimate by the Department of the Environment pitching this cost at up to €1.15 billion per annum by 2050.