The challenging task of forecasting the medal winners for the Olympics is always fraught with uncertainty, even as the commencement of the Games draws nearer. However, Nielsen’s Gracenote Virtual Medal predicted finishes with a solid track record and it has recently increased the potential medal attainment for Ireland to nine, inclusive of two golden accolades.
With the countdown to the opening ceremony on July 26th reaching the 30-day mark, Gracenote has disclosed its latest prognostications for gold, silver, and bronze medals for each country. These are based on the newly revised results from main global and continental events that have taken place post the rescheduled 2021 Tokyo Games.
Ireland acquired four medals in Tokyo – further gold and bronze pairings. Gracenote’s current forecast suggests that Ireland will bag nine medals at the Paris Games, including two gold, two silver and five bronze. This projected tally would exceed the record of six medals that the country bagged at the 2012 London Games, a victory lap which saw Irish boxer Katie Taylor secure a gold medal.
This updated forecast shows a rise from the seven medals that were predicted 100 days prior to the Games. Gracenote’s predictions point to another gold win for the incumbent champs Paul O’Donovan and Fintan McCarthy in the rowing lightweight double sculls event. If achieved, O’Donovan would become the first Irish sportsperson to clinch medals in three consecutive events (he also secured a silver medal alongside his brother Gary in Rio 2016).
An additional prediction of two more rowing medals is for Daire Lynch and Philip Boyle in the double sculls category and Aifric Keogh and Fiona Murtagh in the women’s duo category, both set to win bronze.
Gymnast Rhys McClenaghan, the uninterrupted world champion from Newtownards, is tipped to snatch gold in the pommel horse event, as he is now the established leader in this discipline since the previous Tokyo Games.
Kellie Harrington, the 60kg boxing category gold medal victor in Tokyo, is forecasted to win silver this time, while Shannon Sweeney (50kg) and Aoife O’Rourke (75kg) are expected to achieve bronze in their boxing events.
In the realm of Golf, silver is expected for Rory McIlroy. Meanwhile in the swimming pool, Daniel Wiffen is expected to secure a bronze in the 800m freestyle, although his double gold achievement at the World Championships in Doha last February might make him hungrier for a higher finish.
Lastly, in the most recent forecast, showjumper Cian O’Connor was slated to win a bronze in the individual equestrian event, but he has since slipped from this triumvirate.
Despite her commendable performance at the World Championships last summer in Budapest, finishing fourth in the 400m, Rhasidat Adeleke was not awarded a medal in either track or field. Ciara Mageean received the same place in the 1,500m race. Yet, Mageean triumphed in the European Championship in Rome, securing a gold medal, while Adeleke, the 21-year-old, took second place in the 400m.
Ireland is currently projected to secure the 30th spot in the overall medals ranking, a significant improvement over its previously predicted 36th place with 100 days remaining, and outperforming its joint 39th place finish in Tokyo.
The United States is forecasted to dominate, amassing an impressive total of 123 medals, including an expected 39 golds. China and Great Britain follow, with predicted medal scores of 89 and 66 respectively. Meanwhile, the host country, France, is anticipated to finish in fourth place with a total of 55 medals.