The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has cautioned that Ireland is set to fall significantly short of its legally-binding objective to reduce its overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 51% by the year 2030. The country is on track to lower its emissions by just 29%, according to the latest forecasts. The EPA’s annual data for the EU illustrates a trend of repeatedly unfulfilled goals in a period where continuous reductions in emissions are essential.
The EPA has come to the conclusion that the initial two binding carbon budgets, aimed at controlling emissions across various sectors from 2021 to 2030, will not be achieved. Instead, the shortfall will be substantial, ranging anywhere between 17% and 27%. This will necessitate the imposition of stricter controls during the next budget period, from 2026 to 2030 since any extra GHG emissions from the previous phase must be taken forward. This could pose a threat of curbing sectors with high correlated carbon emissions including industry and agriculture.
Apart from this, the government’s likely inability to reach its EU “effort-sharing regulation” goal of a 42% cut by 2030 could lead to significant compliance expenses. These are projected to be anywhere from €3 billion to €8 billion, depending on the carbon price and any ‘flexibilities’ that the EU may agree to. The EU can issue heavy penalties separately for any breaches in emissions from industrial and energy sectors.
An analysis by the EPA released on Tuesday suggests that, even if all initiatives in the government’s 2024 climate strategy are carried out to the letter, the most we can hope for is a reduction of less than 30%. This is an optimistic estimate based on the newest government schemes which have yet to secure financing or legislative backing.
Attaining such a degree of decarbonisation “will necessitate thorough application of a broad variety of policies and strategies throughout all sectors and require these to result in the projected carbon savings,” the EPA added.
Almost all sectors are set to go over their sector-specific emission limits for 2025 and 2030, agriculture, electricity and transport being the key contributors. Renewable power generation using wind and solar energy is nearest to hitting its target.
The EPA’s models predict that implemented climate policies and measures will only result in a 4% reduction per annum from 2023 to 2030. This shortfall is significantly less than the commitment to slash emissions by half.
According to forecasts, all sectors with the exception of residential and commercial buildings are expected to fall short of their targets. The agriculture, industry and land use sectors are anticipated to be the most significantly affected due to an abundance of greenhouse gases (GHGs), while the electricity sector is closest to achieving its target.
Laura Burke, Director General of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), emphasised the imperative need to fully implement all climate action plans and policies in order to actualise an approximately 29% reduction in GHG emissions. This figure underlines the effort that’s required to achieve the necessary reductions across all sectors of the Irish economy, as it falls far short of national and European emission reduction goals. Burke stressed on the importance of transforming plans and policies into tangible action on the ground.
On a positive note, Burke did highlight the growing trend towards a low-carbon society in Ireland. She pointed out to the increase in electric vehicles on the road, the growing use of renewable electricity in homes, and the introduction of new agricultural practices. However, she emphasised on the need to hasten and enhance this transition.
Mary Frances Rochford, EPA programme manager, emphasised the urgency of the situation by expressing the need for speeding up the delivery of renewable technologies to foster a decarbonised economy. She also discussed the need for emission-reducing technologies in agriculture and alternatives to car and freight transport, as well as action to curb emissions from land use.
The EPA did acknowledge several Government initiatives that could potentially contribute towards significant reduction in emissions. However, these were not factored into the projections due to lack of clarity on implementation methods. This includes initiatives such as expanding onshore and offshore wind energy, amplifying solar PV and introducing new flexible gas-fired power generation.
In related news, Eamon Ryan, Minister for Environment, will present a series of critical and sobering climate memos to the Cabinet on Tuesday. In his speech, he will highlight the concerning speed at which the climate is deteriorating, beyond previous predictions. Mr Ryan will share that 2023 was the warmest year on historical record, and that an extreme marine heat wave off the West coast in June caused sea surface temperatures to rise a staggering 5.5 degrees above normal. This led to unprecedented rainfall and devastating flash floods.
Officials will be informed that the most significant threat to Ireland is the potential weakening or breakdown of the water currents that run from the South to the North, off the Atlantic shore, this century. This current is responsible for Ireland’s moderate climate. Should this defence fail, Ireland could potentially experience winter temperatures as low as minus ten to minus fifteen degrees, and summer temperatures peaking no higher than 10 degrees.
Additionally, he will present a brief on the National Energy and Climate Plan that centres on Ireland’s efforts to achieve its European Union 2030 target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The plan incorporates projections of the Environmental Protection Agency’s emissions. Mr Ryan will state to the Cabinet that these projections don’t completely reveal the entire scenario as there is not yet enough data to effectively model all actions involved in our Climate Action Plan.