The United States has been accused in Iran of being responsible for the demise of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian. The nation is often permeated with conspiracy theories, with the recent failure to modernise their air fleet, due to US sanctions, being implicated for the crash by some.
The Bell 212 helicopter, reportedly acquired back in the 1970s by the removed Pahlavi dynasty, was transporting both men from a dam inauguration event in neighbouring Azerbaijan via a mountain range enveloped in fog. All available evidence points to the crash being merely an unfortunate accident, being labelled as “technical failure” on Iranian state radio.
Raisi’s untimely death has sent ripples through the staunch regime in Tehran amid an increasingly turbulent Middle East. However, it’s not expected to bring any substantial deviation in Iran’s domestic or international direction. Elected in 2021 with the lowest turnout in history, from a group that had seen a purge of any substantial rivals to the staunch ideologues, Raisi was notably more aligned with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (85), the country’s de facto ruler, than many of his predecessors. A president’s power in Iran is limited to overseeing the executive branch and the economy.
A proficient Islamic law scholar and an influential figure in the judiciary, he was known for his association with the Revolutionary Guards, his inflexible enforcement of religious orthodoxy and his involvement in the political mass killings in 1988. Furthermore, he was a likely contender to succeed Khamenei, a testament to his unwavering loyalty to the ailing leader.
Khamenei’s initial VP, Mohammad Mokhber, has already been assigned as the temporary leader, with elections to be held in the next 50 days. Given the Ayatollah’s deteriorating health, the upcoming election is sure to incite intense internal disputes among conservatives regarding succession. The ruling power is once again doubtful to permit dissenters to participate in the election, despite recent public resistance by former reformist president Hassan Rouhani against disqualifications imposed by the “Guardian Council”. However, these protests are hardly representative of significant change in this deeply rooted regime.