The covert conflict has now been overtly declared, following the Israeli alleged attack on the Iranian embassy premises in Damascus on the first day of April. This incident has ignited a countermove from Iran resulting in an immense direct retaliation on Israel. The attack, carried out with the assistance of Iran’s Houthi and Hezbollah subsidiaries in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, utilised drones, surface-to-surface missiles and cruise missiles. Even more alarming, a slew of Katyusha rockets from Hezbollah targeted an Israeli camp in the Golan Heights while an Israeli container ship was seized by Iranian forces in the Gulf of Oman.
The typically indirect nature of the long-standing dispute between Israel and Iran has now shifted, introducing perilous implications with the USA, France, Jordan and Britain now participating in defending Israel. Hostility had been previously expressed through Iranian subsidiaries or designated assassinations of Iranian scientists and military heads by Israel. The threat of broadening the conflict within the area currently looms large.
The upcoming reaction from Israel is a key factor to monitor. Despite having affirmed their support, Israel’s allies, the UK and the US, are now ardently urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from escalating the conflict through reciprocal attacks, specifically if the targets are located within Iran.
Iran has declared it harbours no intention to extend conflict, already accomplished in their retaliatory mission. Yet, Israel’s response might accelerate their aggression and result in an attack of a much greater scale.
It is crucial for Israel to demonstrate self-restraint. Its effective resistance to the drone attacks and very minimal destruction noticeably showcase its military prowess. Similarly, immediate acclaim of solidarity from its allies allude to the strength of its alliances, notwithstanding recent disagreements with the US. Any revenge motive should be eliminated.
However, Prime Minister Netanyahu, possibly influenced by domestic and personal politics, has shown resistance to this advice from allies. Israel committed to take necessary action in response to the situation.
As negotiations continue for a humanitarian truce, the potential for a catastrophic full-scale attack on Rafah lingers, despite unanimous opposition from Israel’s allies and the UN. As per most recent updates, Israel has claimed the latest ceasefire proposals were denied by Hamas.
Israel must lend its ears to its allies if it desires their support in these critical moments. The looming threat of an expanded war in the Middle East has become a horrifying reality. There’s been a perilous increase in tension following Iran’s attack, with global heads of state and the UN all striving to prevent an escalation of the conflict. The only pathway to prevent exacerbation of the situation now would be restraint from every involved party.