On Wednesday, it was disclosed that all governmental bodies and bureaus in Iran’s capital, Tehran, and in 13 other provinces, particularly those on the western and eastern frontiers, were not operational. Operating hours for these locations were restricted to between 6am and 10am. Furthermore, Iran issued a caution to civil aviation, alerting them of possible gunfire from Wednesday evening into the subsequent day over different regions of the country.
As Iran gears up to execute its promise to inflict a “severe punishment” on Israel following the murder of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas, last week in Tehran, growing war fears are felt by the populace. However, the expected visible signs of a pending conflict remain largely absent in Tehran and other urban centres.
The government maintained that Wednesday’s shutdown was solely due to harsh heat conditions and the airspace closures were for military training purposes. Contradictorily, acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, commented to state media the previous Tuesday that Iran’s reaction would be absolute and severe.
The specifics of how and to what extent Iran will respond are under deliberation – whether it will be a lone effort or a collaborative one with regional militias such as Lebanon’s Hizbullah and the Houthis of Yemen. The striking discrepancy between the mounting threats and the casual approach towards preparing the public is noticed.
Individuals in Tehran feel clueless. As stated by Maliheh, a 66-year-old retired citizen: “We depend on news broadcasts on satellite television to comprehend developments. Our officials are failing to update us.” For fear of potential retaliation by the authorities, she requested her last name be suppressed.
The government remains tight-lipped on the proposed steps citizens should take amidst possible Israeli retaliation: no provisional shelters, no evacuation drills, no alerts to store emergency provisions, and no emergency plans for medical centres in case of a strike. As 41-year-old entrepreneur Ehsan from Tehran pointed out, the people are considered of secondary importance.
Conversations on social media and interviews across various cities suggest that Iranians are experiencing a mix of angst and confusion. “The current situation has surpassed our endurance,” expressed Tehran-based artist Parisa, aged 37. “Many individuals who never desired to relocate are now contemplating emigration. The mood is mournful, violent and restive.”
While some have questioned whether the recent murmurs of conflict are justified, expressing skepticism whether any retaliatory action from Israel in response to Iran’s decisions could lead to everyday disruption or impact vital services like electricity and water. Mostafa, a computer engineer aged 36 from Rasht, a city in northwestern Iran, voiced his opposition to the government’s backing of regional militant groups, arguing that it attracted Israeli attention to Iran. However, he denied the possibility of a full-scale warfare, stating his belief that any hostilities would be remote, targeting specific locations, thus causing him little concern.
From a different perspective, there are those who claim to be fatigued emotionally owing to a series of unsettling incidents that have taken place over the past months. These events, each capable of shaking the national consciousness, range from an ISIS terrorist attack claiming over 200 lives; missile exchanges with nearby nations; nearing the breaking point of warfare with both the USA and Israel; to the consequential death of the president and foreign minister in a helicopter crash.
The previous week witnessed a further depreciation of an already devalued currency against the dollar alongside a stock market nosedive. Behdad, a local entrepreneur aged 39 from Tehran, complained of his worsening import-export business saying, “We are simply weary of hearing about death, explosions, dollar rate hikes, and the looming threat of war every few months.”
Simultaneously, internal challenges have stirred the national landscape. A viral video displaying female law enforcement officers manhandling two teenage girls into a van for not wearing hijabs sparked public fury. Many Iranian citizens are urging President Masoud Pezeshkian, a fresh reformist face, to address his election vow towards women and cease enforcing the mandatory hijab rule, with the video predating the presidential elections.
Select political commentators have warned against rushing into a confrontation that could inadvertently escalate. Ahmad Zeidabadi, a reformist, noted in his Telegram post that while Israeli experts were having an open discussion about the potential fallout from dusting with Iran, no such candid risk evaluation nor debate was being undertaken within Iran.
In his writing, Zeidabadi states that a mere suggestion for discretion and cautiousness, such as ‘avoid diving into the water without thought’, could lead to leaps in judgement and harsh accusations. He continued to say that one can be easily labeled as a supporter of Zionism or alleged to be conspiring with the United States. This piece was first published in The New York Times.