Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s highest authority, has suggested a resumption of discussions surrounding the 2015 global agreement that restricts Tehran’s nuclear operations, in return for a waiver of sanctions. This suggestion was made while in consultation with the newly appointed progressive President, Masoud Pezeshkian and his team.
In Khamenei’s words, while it is unwise to trust the “enemy” (implying the West), it does not necessarily imply an inability to engage with them under specific circumstances. However, he cautioned against placing complete trust in them.
The superior leader’s directive has given foreign minister Abbas Araghchi the approval to advance towards resurrecting an altered nuclear agreement. In a television discussion that took place a week ago, Mr Araghchi stated that it is necessary to reassess and amend certain parts of the original accord because, as it stands now, it is not feasible.
Mr Pezeshkian is committed to revitalising the agreement with the hope of mitigating the sanctions that have wreaked havoc on Iran’s economy, causing public outcry over unemployment, skyrocketing inflation and restrictive social policies.
Under the proposed agreement, Iran consented to the eradication of its inventory of medium-enriched uranium, reducing its reserves of low-enriched uranium by 98 per cent, leaving just 300kg for electricity production, along with decreasing the quantity of enrichment centrifuges. Additionally, Tehran agreed to the most comprehensive examination and surveillance programme ever run by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
In exchange, Iran saw a removal of sanctions affecting their oil exports, financial activities, shipping, construction, mining and production. This system was effective until May 2018, when the US then President, Donald Trump, retracted, making it infeasible for the other signing parties – Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany – to waive sanctions. Iran recommenced uranium enrichment to 20 per cent in 2019 and reached 60 per cent purity – just a fraction away from the 90 per cent required for creating nuclear weapons.
Despite Iran declaring that it has ceased weapon production, it is still amassing substantial quantities of enriched uranium and was unresponsive towards discussions with the IAEA. Oil sales restrictions were reintroduced, however, several violations of these sanctions have been reported by Asian buyers as well as states such as Turkey, Poland, and Bulgaria.
During his campaigning period, US President Joe Biden pledged to rejoin the agreement but fell short of fulfilling this promise once in office. Rather than sticking to the original plan, Biden insisted on extraneous political compromises – a demand which Iran refused and led the talks to a standstill.
The failure to reopen negotiation channels factored into the election of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi as Iranian president in June 2021, edging out a moderate successor to reformer Hassan Rouhani, who was president when the accord was initially signed.
Negotiations collapsed in September 2022. Although bringing the nuclear agreement back on track would be seen as significant diplomatic triumph, it is highly doubtful that the Biden administration will rise to this task in its final six months in office.