Israel instigated a heightened level of regional conflict on Monday with an attack that claimed the lives of seven Iranian military personnel and staff members at Iran’s consulate in central Damascus – an event seen as an extension of the ongoing Israeli conflict in Gaza. Despite remaining reticent in response to numerous customary Israeli missile and drone attacks targeting Hizbullah fighters from Lebanon and pro-Iranian militants in Syria – a group which has defended the Syrian government against armed insurgents – Iran is now finding it tough to remain silent. Following the latest incident, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi vowed that the “grossly unfair act will not go unpunished”.
By striking the consulate, Israel essentially declared an attack on Iran, pulling Tehran into a direct feud with Israel following years of indirect skirmishes involving Iranian proxies and Israeli soldiers. This move has been openly supported by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu since 2019, who has been hopeful of triggering a war with Iran and potentially drawing a hesitant US into the mix.
The consulate attack signifies a noteworthy shift in Israel’s target profile, away from mid-tier officials and fighters and towards figures like Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top-tier commander of Iran’s elite Quds force embedded in the Revolutionary Guards Corps. Zahedi’s assassination marks the most significant killing of an Iranian officer since Gen Qassem Suleimani’s killing by the US in January 2020.
Reports suggest that Zahedi played a key role in supplying Iranian weaponry to Lebanon’s Hizbullah, some of which may be currently used in border skirmishes with Israeli forces. Hizbullah initiated this hostility following an Israeli attack on Gaza in reaction to the October 7th attack led by Hamas.
Initially, Hizbullah and Israel attempted to manage these exchanges to prevent escalating tensions. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdolahian has often visited Beirut to encourage restraint, despite Hizbullah’s loss of 257 combatants, contrasted with Israel’s less significant loss of 14 soldiers. Public demand from both sides to see an end to the brutal conflict, which has displaced over 100,000 people in southern Lebanon and almost an equal number from settlements in northern Israel, is increasing. Nonetheless, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt Gen Herzi Halevi stated that Israel’s war in Gaza could serve as an opening to eradicate both Hizbullah and Hamas.
In January, Israel stepped up the intensity of its Lebanon attacks, assassinating Hamas leader, Saleh Arouri, in Beirut. This marks the start of a series of assassinations initiated by Israeli authorities, related to the conflict in Gaza. Following this, in February, the Hizbullah commander Ali Mohammed Debs and his second-in-command were taken out in Nabatiyeh, a Lebanese town over 20km away from the Israel border. By March, Israel had targeted an alleged Hizbullah warehouse and observation point close to the historic city of Baalbek, located a hundred kilometres from the border. Moreover, Israel has claimed the lives of several Hizbullah division leaders in the border area.
On the 29th of March, connections were established between the Lebanese and Syrian battlegrounds as Israel attacked a military storehouse in a district of Aleppo, a northern Syrian city. As per the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, this offensive resulted in 36 Syrian soldiers, seven Hizbullah combatants and a Syrian member of an Iranian-supported bloc losing their lives and many others getting injured. This accounts for the highest death toll from an Israeli attack on Syria in the recent past. Intelligence coming from Beirut indicates a potential Israeli attack in Lebanon around the 15th of April.