Advancements in the Gaza truce discussions scheduled for Thursday could motivate Iran to forestall a potential regional conflict by refraining from exacting revenge on Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, in Tehran, last month. According to US President Joe Biden on Tuesday, this is his anticipated outcome. He has sent CIA Head William Burns, Adviser Brett McGurk, and Lebanon’s Envoy Amos Hochstein, who was born in Israel, to the region for the negotiations. However, he has postponed Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit until the outlook appears favourable.
Hamas has stated that it will not participate in Thursday’s negotiations, but it will dispatch a representative to Qatar thereafter. The militant group, based in Gaza, has agreed to Biden’s ceasefire proposal made on May 31st. Yet Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu could sabotage its success by stipulating that Israel must oversee the Egypt-Gaza border and monitor the return of Palestinians to northern Israel. As per the agreement, Israel is supposed to completely withdraw allowing unrestricted movement for Palestinians.
Iran’s foreign ministry has dismissed appeals to forego retribution against Israel, which it claims is its right under international law due to what it perceives as Israel’s infringement of Iran’s sovereignty by killing Haniyeh in Tehran. An advisor to Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian informed the Washington Post that Iran’s payback will be “intelligence-based” and necessitate a period for “thought and patience”.
Even though the leaders of France, Germany and Britain have called for moderation, Pezeshkian will yield to the supreme authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who declared that Israel has set itself up for drastic punishment by attacking Tehran. Any military response could potentially jeopardise Pezeshkian’s commitment to improving relations with the West and reinstating the 2015 accord that curtailed Iran’s nuclear programme in return for easing the sanctions that have devastated Iran’s economy.
Pezeshkian’s inauguration took place on July 30th and he was immediately met with numerous difficulties. The conservative majority parliament could potentially veto his 19-member cabinet selection. In a controversial move, Vice-president Mohammed Reza Aref refused to appoint Farzaneh Sadegh, a woman, as the minister for roads and housing.
After disagreements over the cabinet appointments, Javad Zarif, a key supporter and deputy to Pezeshkian, made the decision to resign. Amwaj media, a news outlet based in London, voiced the concern that this could drastically impact Pezeshkian’s public approval. Despite the criticism over security shortcomings during his tenure, notably the high-profile assassination of Haniyeh, Pezeshkian opted to keep Esmail Khatib as interior minister.
During the first week of Pezeshkian’s tenure, social media platforms were ablaze with CCTV footage showing morality police officers harshly handling a young woman without a headscarf and forcing her into a van. This incident sparked fears of reigniting the 2022 protests triggered by the arrest and subsequent death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who was accused of breaching the mandatory head covering law.