Tensions in Beirut are mounting amid concerns that Israel may escalate its rising border interactions with the extremist organisation, Hizbullah, into a comprehensive operation in Lebanon, which could potentially trigger a regional conflict. Since declaring a strategic plan to launch an offensive in Lebanon, there has been increased activity by Israeli forces close to the Lebanese border, while the US amplifies its attempts to prevent warfare.
American negotiator of Israeli descent, Amos Hochstein, during his talks with Lebanese leaders in Beirut, cautioned that the US may be unable to restrain Israel if hostilities continue to intensify. Hochstein made clear that the US would support Israel in the event of a full-blown offensive in Lebanon, as reported by US news platform Axios.
Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, in his recent communications with his Israeli peer, Yoav Gallant, highlighted the devastating impact that war would have on the Middle East. Austin urged Israel to adopt diplomatic means to avoid elevating tensions further.
Currently, Israel can proceed in two different directions. It could either increase its troops in the northern areas to mount an assault on Lebanon, which recent polls suggest would find favour with 60% of Israelis, or it could encourage Iran-backed Hizbullah to stand by its commitment to halt attacks once Israel tones down its aggressive operations in Gaza or consents to a ceasefire in Gaza.
In Lebanon, acting foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib has embarked on a diplomatic mission to Brussels, Washington, New York, and Ottawa in attempts to stave off war. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s shaky government faced increasing pressure to bring Hizbullah under control. Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, advocated for “extreme caution”, warning that a simple “miscalculation” may instigate war. From the Vatican, secretary of state Pietro Parolin asked the opposing sides to agree on “peace propositions”.
At a conference in Geneva, UN’s top humanitarian representative, Martin Griffiths, predicted that Israel’s ongoing military action against Hamas in Gaza could potentially spread to Lebanon, thus possibly dragging Syria and other nations into the fray. He warned that the scenario could potentially lead to an apocalyptic outcome.
Pro-Iran militias situated in Syria and Iraq have stated that they would lend their support to Hizbullah in the event of an Israeli assault on Lebanon. Furthermore, Iran, albeit somewhat unwillingly, may feel compelled to fire missile salvoes at Israel, just as it did in the past month of April. If Hizbullah launches attacks on British and Cypriot airbases in Cyprus, it may also lead to EU intervention. It’s worth noting that Hizbullah has previously issued threats to strike Cyprus if it permits Israel to utilise its terrain in any prospective conflict with Lebanon.
The plans of Irish overseas department for possible extrication of Irish nationals from Lebanon are in the pipeline due to escalated violence in the Lebanese-Israeli border. The trigger point of this crisis came when Hizbullah retaliated to Gaza’s attack led by Israel, following the October 7th invasion on Israel by Hamas. This conflict on both sides compelled 90,000 inhabitants to abandon their homes. The Southern Lebanon conflict alone has seen the demise of 481 people, inclusive of 94 civilians. Further, Israel’s North has reported the death of 15 military personnel and 11 civilians. Some of those countries urging their citizens to exit Lebanon include Australia, Canada, Germany, Kuwait, Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland, whilst others strongly suggest nationals abstain from travelling to Beirut.