Stephen Omukoko Okoth, a young Kenyan gentleman hailing from the west of the country, marked a personal milestone by becoming his school’s sole representative chosen for an educational tenure in Switzerland. This opened the door for him to acquire a scholarship at Oberlin College located in Ohio, USA, and currently, he is serving as an intern on Wall Street. In addition to his educational pursuits, Okoth took on the role of a mentor for youthful contenders of The Earth Prize, an environmental contest I initiated three years prior. Because of his dedication, he was honoured with the title of Mentor of the Year. His reflections were particularly impactful during a dialogue on the Unpolluted podcast, where he disclosed the motives behind his choice of economics as a college major. His lecturer drew a comparison between a single water molecule, whose movement is furthermost uncertain, and a pail of water, whose trajectory can be anticipated with relative precision.
Drawing parallel with this, economics may find it challenging to anticipate an individual’s actions, yet it can competently foresee large-scale economic trends. I was reminded of this analogy recently when confronted with doubts regarding climate change.
Turning our attention to Ireland, an intriguing example is presented by Ryanair’s Chief Executive, Michael O’Leary, due to his dual capacity as a cattle rancher and the head of the most lucrative airline in terms of market value.
An incident in Bangkok, where I was partaking a meal with a Thai industrialist, serves to illustrate this further. Our exchange shifted towards environmental topics, leading him to reveal his reservations about climate change. He argued that, notwithstanding the significant apprehension around rising carbon dioxide levels, they represent just a small part of the atmosphere. His statement caught me by surprise and, to my dismay, I did not counteract his claim, owing to his status as my host.
Indeed he was correct, according to the most recent data, with the Pacific’s Mauna Loa island recording CO2 concentrations of 427 parts per million (ppm). This substantial increase from the pre-industrial average of 280ppm over the past 10,000 years might seem relatively small, especially given that CO2 levels were considerably higher in the distant past.
Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, is a fascinating case. As a boss of the largest airline by market capitalisation and a cattle farmer, it isn’t surprising that he previously questioned the credibility of climate science, specifically the precision of the models used to predict climate phenomena. His opinion has since evolved, albeit with ongoing irritation about the focus on aviation emissions.
This situation brings to mind Okoth’s narrative on the water molecule: Detractors utilise the complexity of modelling individual climate components as a weapon in their argument against climate science.
My view on climate modelling is akin to predicting how a bucket of water will splash when thrown, while the specifics may be unknown, a wet floor at the end of it is guaranteed.
Both interesting characters like O’Leary and the referenced Thai industrialist, as well as Irish farmers generally, get my admiration. I understand their irritation with the regulations, though well-meaning, set by green politicians as a capitalist myself. In order to effectively handle climate change, we need to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. This could be achieved by levying heavy taxes on aviation fuel and methane production. Higher costs of aviation fuel might be a boon to a well-managed airline such as Ryanair, solidifying their commanding position across Europe and potentially discouraging some from flying due to higher costs – a normal outcome under capitalist principles. Though we may not fully comprehend the specific impact of airborne carbon emissions, the broader implication – rising temperatures – is clear from the science.
In spite of our inability to model every specific detail, the broad consensus of the science remains indisputable.
In a similar vein, imposing a tax on methane might reduce livestock numbers in the southern parts of Europe. These areas are generally drier, constraining their competitiveness against the lush Irish grasslands. A uniform carbon tax, extended across Europe and even to imports outside the European Union, could strangely leverage Irish capabilities.
The burden of rectifying the situation is unfairly placed on individuals in our current system. To illustrate, consider if in the time of slavery, 19th-century forebears were advised to use less cotton or limit their sugar intake, as these were the fruits of slave labour. Ultimately, slavery was eradicated due to its inherent immorality. In a similar vein, the emission of carbon and other harmful greenhouse gases is an act that ought to be taxed, and ultimately reduced. Despite the inability to model every tiny detail, the broad science is unequivocal. Just as spilling a bucket of water surely leads to a damp floor, discharging carbon gases will undeniably wreak havoc on our environment over time.
Peter McGarry initiated The Earth Foundation, a movement aimed at rapidly advancing changes conducive to environmental stability. You can discover more about The Earth Prize, or join the virtual prize-giving event on Earth Day, 22nd April, by visiting theearthprize.org.