India has for many years been the primary and most trusted international supporter of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, providing her with protection in her young years of exile and lending backing to her government even when a large portion of Bangladeshi population objected to its severity.
However, a week prior, India’s reliance on the extended-serving Prime Minister faced a severe blow. Following a period of growing protests and civil unrest, Sheikh Hasina escaped to India when her home was surrounded by protesters against her government.
The abrupt downfall of her 15-year rule has given rise to an unstable power void in Bangladesh. With a population of 170 million, Bangladesh is seen by India as its most solid regional ally.
The subsequent violence which erupted in Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina’s leave has sparked fear amongst India’s authorities. It was reported that over 130 people were dead in the country on the day she left.
Furthermore, this state of affairs has disrupted New Delhi’s regional strategy, particularly when Prime Minister, Narendra Modi is trying to halt China’s increasing influence. The ongoing support for Sheikh Hasina by India to the bitter end threatens to tarnish India’s image in front of many Bangladeshis.
“Her protection from wrath and shielding from global pressure is due to India’s unwavering support,” stated Ali Riaz, a specialist in Bangladeshi politics at Illinois State University.
India’s support for a government with an atrocious human rights record and one which was completely isolated is a clear sign that their approach needs revision.
Furthermore, Indian authorities expressed deep concern about the violence that ensued following Sheikh Hasina’s departure. Over 130 deaths were reported in Bangladesh, and India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar, highlighted that minorities, in particular Hindus (who are a majority in India), were targeted.
He emphasised India’s long-standing close relationship with Bangladesh, stating to the parliament that India is highly worried until the restoration of law and order is clearly visible.
India, being one of the most populous countries in the world with a $3.5 trillion economy, has a complex relationship with its neighbouring countries. Indian officials have consistently been concerned about potential extremism and Chinese infiltration in Bangladesh, which is predominantly Muslim and largely bordered by India. They perceived Sheikh Hasina’s main competitor, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, to be lenient on Islamism and more agreeable to Beijing.
The relationship between India and Sheikh Hasina was rooted during the 1971 independence war of Bangladesh against Pakistan, wherein India stepped in to back her father, separatist leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. This bond was tested when various media portals and social media channels run by the pro-Indian government criticised the uprising, some even suggesting it as a ploy by the western countries.
After Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his family met a tragic end in a coup in 1975, his 27-year-old daughter, Sheikh Hasina, sought refuge in Delhi. She returned to Bangladesh in 1981 and emerged as the leader favoured by India. Sheikh Hasina became a crucial component of India’s Prime Minister Modi’s strategy to strengthen regional economic relationships and linkages in reaction to the mounting Chinese influence in the region.
India has extended credit lines to Bangladesh worth $8 billion, which is more than any other Asian country. Indian businesses, such as the politically connected Adani infrastructure conglomerate, have secured profitable energy supply contracts in Bangladesh.
C Raja Mohan, a Delhi-based fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, pointed that Hasina was pro-India and was willing to transform the bilateral relationship. India held back from joining the international powers, including the US and UK, in condemning the persecution of the opposition BNP ahead of Sheikh Hasina’s re-election in January. Some Bangladeshi activists claimed that India was shielding her regime.
Though Sheikh Hasina was the first leader to visit Modi post his re-election in June, her leadership was met with growing discontent at home due to her authoritarianism and poor human rights record. Kanti Bajpai, an Indian foreign policy scholar, suggested that India should have gradually distanced itself from such a precarious relationship.
Moreover, in recent times, India faced diplomatic obstacles in the Maldives. Following the recent election of President Mohamed Muizzu, who ran an “India Out” campaign and expelled a small Indian troop component, indicated a diplomatic setback for India.
India, striving to compete with China for influence in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan, now faces the dilemma of what action to take regarding Hasina. Disclosed by Jaishankar, Hasina arrived near Delhi abruptly on Monday. India played a part in securing her escape prior to an attack on her Dhaka dwelling, thereby averting potential violence and further disturbances in Bangladesh.
Nevertheless, prolonging her stay might emphasize New Delhi’s image as an ally to the ex-prime minister, possibly causing convolutions in relations with the forthcoming regime of Bangladesh, experts warned. Although Hasina is in the process of requesting asylum in another country, her son, Sajeeb Wazed, shared with media outlets that she is still undecided where to relocate and intends to stick around in Delhi for a brief period. Jaishankar purportedly informed Indian political chiefs that she was in a condition of emotional distress.
In response, Bangladesh’s recently selected provisional leader, Muhammad Yunus—an esteemed economist and Nobel recipient—expressed his commitment to reinstate balance and devise “a blueprint for fresh elections”. Regardless of whichever party succeeds in the elections, it is expected that they will need to rely heavily on their sizeable neighbouring ally, India.
The upcoming election in Bangladesh may provide an opportunity for the BNP, historically hostile to India, to regain power. BNP committee executive Tabith Awal added that they have begun to perceive India as an imperative regional development partner and expressed hope that the Indian government would move from dependence on a single individual, Sheikh Hasina, to cultivate a more direct relationship with the Bangladeshi populace.
Shafqat Munir, a senior fellow with the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies revealed that there’s much unease in New Delhi over the future form of the government. However, highlighting the unavoidable realities of geopolitics and geography, he stated the importance of building partnerships with India. — Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.