The scandals enveloping Sinn Féin could result in a significant shift in Irish politics. This not only impacts the government’s formation but also designs the shape of the opposition for the subsequent Dáil session, as well as the broader future of the political system.
These scandals surrounding Sinn Féin offer a golden chance for both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to secure enough seats in the upcoming election and thus form a new administration, with or perhaps without the need for a minor coalition partner.
The ongoing incidents involving Sinn Féin and the party’s responses have unveiled what Finance Minister Jack Chambers refers to as a “culture of concealment”, which prioritises the party’s own advantages over public welfare. If this is Sinn Féin’s approach as the opposition, it isn’t hard to envisage the potential misconducts when given control over the state’s institutions. All voters, as well as the smaller parties in the Dáil who have consistently teamed up with Sinn Féin, should give this some thought. This situation provides a chance for these parties to merge and offer the electorate an alternate power that could join the government or even succeed Sinn Féin as the leading opposition in the subsequent Dáil.
There never has been a more opportune time for a fresh left-wing alliance to surface. Simon Harris is aware not to repeat Leo Varadkar’s blunder. It’s evident that Ireland isn’t neutral in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and the pretence needs to halt. The British Labour government would be delighted to bear the Coalition’s difficulties.
The chief concern revolves around the three parties’ capacity for collaboration. The Greens’ current governance partnership with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil presents one clear challenge, given that TDs from both major parties have outwardly expressed their wish to oust the Greens if feasible post the forthcoming election.
Another thorny issue is the Social Democrats and their party leader, Holly Cairns, who never miss a shot to criticise the Labour Party. Seen in the same light as the Trotskyist hard left and some countryside Independents, the Social Democrats perceive governmental participation as negative in itself and seemingly take pleasure in the favourable position of denouncing the current regime from the opposition benches.
Yet, as the local and European elections show, the public indeed sees the Labour, the Greens, and the Social Democrats as informal allies. Particularly in Dublin, the transfers from eliminated Social Democrats played a significant role in electing many Labour councillors and all three parties transferred amongst each other well. A case in point was the European election count in Dublin, where, thanks to a big transfer of 16,614 votes – 44% of his total – from outgoing Green MEP Ciarán Cuffe, Labour candidate Aodhán Ó Ríordáin outdid Independent Ireland’s Niall Boylan for the last seat. The consensus on the count was that had Cuffe lead Ó Ríordáin, Labour transfers would have elected him.
Labour and the Greens share a commonality in that both parties have governed and can boast considerable achievements in office, despite experiencing electoral backlash. In their 2007 coalition with Fianna Fáil, the Greens began actualising their plans and didn’t shy away from the robust steps needed to prevent Ireland’s financial meltdown. Similarly, in their coalition with Fine Gael, Labour was diligent in its duties, successfully shielding those on welfare from the toughest conditions of the bailout programme. A notable contrast is the Greens’ ownership and pride in their accomplishments during their government stint, especially the completion of initiatives they demanded as the condition to join the present coalition.
In contrast to other parties, Labour has often seemed unclear about its governmental role, thus failing to receive recognition for its contribution in revitalising the economy and eradicating joblessness. The lack of sagacity of the party was highlighted in 2014 when they ousted party leader Eamon Gilmore following poor performance in the local and European elections, essentially sentencing the party’s future in the subsequent general election. It remains uncertain what degree of harm the present controversies will inflict on Sinn Féin, but considering their dismal performance in the local and European elections, it is unlikely that a more opportune time will arise for a fresh, centre-left political alignment.