Hizbullah has long been bracing for Israel’s potential elimination of their secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. His two immediate predecessors, Abbas al-Musawi (1991) and Subhi al-Tufayli (1989-1991), were both slain by Israel, with Nasrallah’s tenure lasting for over three decades. In the event of Nasrallah’s departure, the deputy, Naim Qassem (70), becomes the temporary leader by default, until the elected council of the movement, also known as the shura, selects a permanent one.
Lebanese media suggests that the most probable successor is the notable cousin of Nasrallah, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine (60s). Safieddine, who physically resembles Nasrallah, is a persuasive council member and has strong ties with Tehran, the ally of Hizbullah. Having undertaken his studies in the theological seminary in Qom, a sacred site in Iran, Safieddine’s familial connections extend to Iran, with his son married to the daughter of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated by the US in 2020.
Should Safieddine be the selected successor, this could result in a seamless transition of power, which could bolster the movement’s recovery following a fortnight of Israeli attacks. These attacks resulted in the Israeli forces killing several commanders and a considerable number of fighters, breaking down communications and command structures, and striking hundreds of missile launch sites.
Hizbullah, in prep for the strikes by Israel, put in place deputy commanders for their paramilitary units and concealed an array of armoured vehicles, drones, missiles and other materials in tunnels carved into the mountains of Lebanon. Despite enduring hundreds of deaths, Hizbullah can provide 40,000 fighters– half active, half reserves, with thousands having seen action in the Syrian civil conflict (2011-2019) where they defended the government against armed opponents and Jihadi forces. Despite being shaken and worn down by Israel, Hizbullah’s military arm is stronger and more well-armed than Lebanon’s military, and is globally recognised as the most powerful non-sovereign force.
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Tehran, facing economic and political complications, is apprehensive about stepping into the battlefield if either Israel persists in its aerial attacks on Lebanon or Hizbullah escalates its assault against Israel. Nonetheless, Iran is undoubtedly going to sustain its material and political backing for Hizbullah. Should an Israeli ground attack occur, Hizbullah can expect new forces from not only Lebanon’s southern and eastern parts but also from Iran-supported militia in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
Hizbullah, while recognised for its military segment, is an organisation thoroughly integrated into Lebanon’s Shia community, the largest of the country’s three religious sects. This community is particularly disadvantaged and neglected by the government. In 1974, Amal surfaced to advocate for improvements and advancement in Shia sections, subsequently forming a military group and gaining representation in parliament. Nabih Berri, at the helm of Amal since 1980, has held the position of assembly speaker since 1992 and is now a collaborator with Hizbullah.
Hizbullah contributes to the Shia community by providing clinics, an eminent hospital, schools, charitable foundations and a construction enterprise. Hizbullah has also grown into a significant political party with representatives in the political sphere and figures in the government. By merging, Amal and Hizbullah have created a union that controls 30 out of the total 128 parliamentary seats. Their primary intent is to circumvent the disbanding and disarmament of Hizbullah and Amal militias, which supporters claim are the singular preventative measure against a possible Israeli attack and occupation of the south.”