Historians, like Margaret MacMillan, can sometimes feel overwhelmed by constantly living in the past, especially when contemporary events echo periods they’ve studied, such as pre-1914 or the 1930s. MacMillan, who is prominently known as the author of ‘Peacemakers’, a bestseller that explores the legacies of the Versailles Treaty, acknowledges that current events seem to reflect overlapping crises of times gone by.
Alongside historian, Roy Foster, she was a speaker at the West Cork History Festival, held near Baltimore, Ireland during the weekend of August 9th-11th. The duo agreed on one thing – they believe the world is in difficult times.
As an 80-year-old Canadian conversing with a 75-year-old Irishman, MacMillan reflects on the good fortune of her generation, as well as Foster’s. They rate their generations among the luckiest in human history. MacMillan, a World War II baby, was raised in a prosperous and stable nation, despite the concern caused by the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Today’s world, she laments, does not offer the same promise for younger generations, whom she believes will not live as comfortably or have the same opportunities as their parents. Her conversation with Foster covers a myriad of topics including the threat of social media, climate change, and Donald Trump, with a sombre reminder that people in previous eras endured even worse conditions – particularly referencing the devastation caused by the Black Death in 14th century Europe. MacMillan asserts the importance of maintaining perspective, especially when faced with existential threats in the current climate.
At present, the likelihood of a consecutive tenure at the Oval office for Trump looms large, amidst escalating populism in political circles throughout the western world. The writer of Peacemakers began to observe the striking commonalities between contemporary times and the early 20th century during the Covid-19 pandemic, a period that provided ample time for contemplation.
Initially dismissing parallels between current times and Germany’s Weimar Republic epoch of the 1920s and ‘30s, the author increasingly recognises analogous aspects of how Hitler and the Nazis assumed power. Their rise was facilitated by imprudent elites and businesses who falsely believed they could manipulate these powers- a recurring phenomenon in today’s wave of populism.
According to MacMillan, the world faces distinct complications today. Significantly more interrelated, there persists a sense of lack of control. There is a deficiency of the necessary leadership, and people’s view scopes are fairly narrow.
Foster, having recently read an eye-opening Financial Times interview with influential US evangelical preacher Franklin Graham, questions Christians’ support for Trump. The son of the late Billy Graham defends this by likening Trump to the biblical Emperor Cyrus, who freed the Jews.
MacMillian speculates that a second term with Trump would differ markedly from the tumultuous first one. Trump, not accustomed to defeat and quick to fault others, will seek retribution.
During Trump’s initial term, there were individuals who endeavoured to hold him in check. However, this upcoming term will likely be replete with individuals who embrace Trump’s influence and follow his commands readily.
American politics is not for the faint-hearted, as MacMillan asserts. She laments the existing low levels of cooperation between opposing parties, which contrasts starkly with the camaraderie of the Nixon and Kennedy era when political figures would socialise over drinks.
“They desire an individual with charismatic eloquence, at-the-ready responses, and an easily identifiable adversary,” comments Roy Foster. Foster points out that America has seen individuals with Trump-like instincts in the past, providing examples like aviation pioneer and America First enthusiast Charles Lindbergh or the Louisiana-based populistic governor, Huey Long.
These characters, she argues, were brief flickers in history that never gained substantial proximity to the centre of power. However, Trump did, the reason being his television stardom. This is a novel concept that society grapples to come to terms with, she adds.
Contemplating his potential options for secretary of state, MacMillan suggests, “Could it be Marjorie Taylor Greene, the staunchly right-wing Georgia congresswoman and conspiracy theorist? Any prediction holds water at this point,” Foster, formerly the Caroll Professor of Irish History at the University of Oxford, says, “I was close to suggesting that myself!” Then, amidst the conversation, someone mutters a soft “Jesus”.
Popular figures like Trump have seen their influence grow in part due to the impact of social media on society in the last two decades. This platform allows disagreement and hostility to circulate at unprecedented speeds, leaving rational discourse lagging behind.
MacMillan observes that Trump’s followers often attend rallies more for the spectacle than the politics. Many fail to understand that if Trump regains political control, he will exploit it to his advantage.
In the immediate aftermath of the attempted assassination of Trump, one could quickly find oneself in a terrifying web of conspiracies, often blaming George Soros for the incident, or even suggesting his direct involvement with the weapon. Facebook and other platforms use secret algorithms to promote the most outrageous content and assertions because they generate the most engagement, MacMillan asserts.
Time spent continuously scrolling social media results in a decline in the standard of education and public dialogue, Foster argues. However, he remains hesitant to portray himself as an older academic schooling the younger generation.
“In light of a US scholar who admitted his reluctance in suggesting full-length literature to top-tier Harvard students, a profound sense of worry is understandably expressed by the Waterford-born academic. They caution an impending threat of oversimplified interpretations, a diminished self-assurance in intellect, and an instantaneous obstruction when unfamiliar terminologies are used on such learners, leading to defensive reactions. It ultimately shapes them into individuals who enter the real world carrying an apprehensive and bare perspective toward gaining knowledge.
Social media’s influence over youth’s interpersonal relationships was significantly evident during the protests at university campuses in the United States and Canada against Israeli invasion of Gaza. He was strikingly taken aback by students in Toronto and New York expressing these protests as venues for enjoyable social engagement – singing songs, hand-holding, and he is doubtful whether they will continue such interactions outside the digital world.
Reflecting on his own academic journey, he recalls his stupendous scholarship year at the Episcopal St Andrew’s school in Delaware in 1966, sponsored by a $5,000 grant along with invitations of hospitality from various states. He fondly remembers the school, established by the Dupont family, being the backdrop of the 1989 movie “Dead Poets Society” which portrayed the transformative influence of poetry on the young conservatively-inclined students by Robin Williams’ character.
When he revisited the St Andrew’s school to address today’s 17-year-olds, he reviewed the ideologies held firm during 1966-1967 that nationalism would cease to exist, religion would fade, and racial relationships would progress positively. In reflection, he realised how definitively incorrect these assumptions turned out to be.”
Foster laments the prevalent state of anxiety, desolation, and uncertainty amongst many people, and the shared sentiment of dread they possess. A large percentage seem to be convinced of witnessing another war during their lifetime, a notion which leaves him disheartened.
In such trying situations, Foster fears that people might resort to finding ‘saviours’. Such behavior, as per his view, gives rise to phenomena similar to that experienced in the 1930s. Individuals tend to look for eloquent speakers who provide swift solutions and clear targets to blame.
However, Foster highlights that history is in the making by the people, “None of us would concede that anything is bound to doom,” he states. “There exists a space for strategic change and adjustment”. The works of Margaret vividly illustrate how humans and their individual choices can produce significant impacts.
Politicians, as agreed by MacMillan, should refrain from the assumption of being limited to a single decision-making point, a mistake that occurred prior to the First and Second World Wars. She expresses her concern about this behaviour where individuals are presumptuous about the intentions of their counterparts.
MacMillan cites a lecture she held last year for the US military, where one officer recklessly predicted the inevitability of the US battling China. Concurrently, Foster refers to a leading British officer’s warning stating the UK’s three-year countdown to warfare against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
MacMillan shares her chilling reaction to the US officer’s views, stating his confidence in going to war with China as potentially risky, especially when similar sentiments are echoed in Beijing.
Quoting Antonio Gramsci, the Italian philosopher, about maintaining a hopeful spirit despite an intellectual predisposition to pessimism, she admits that it’s a pragmatic approach. MacMillan optimistically endorses this perspective, alluding to the unfortunate fate of Gramsci who ultimately passed away in prison under Mussolini’s rule, whilst suffering from extreme malnutrition and illness, and succumbing to bouts of severe headaches that resulted in self-infliction of pain.
It’s crucial that we maintain a balanced view of our world, recognising its flaws but not letting ourselves believe it’s only filled with disaster. Gaining perspective, which history abundantly provides, is paramount. It’s true, the challenges we face today may seem insurmountable, but take a moment to consider the trials endured by populations in the 14th Century Europe during the Black Death.
Succumbing to despair serves no purpose other than ruining the one life we get. History has shown time and again that we, as a species, possess an extraordinary resilience in the face of adversity and have the potential, albeit not always fully realised, to construct a better reality.
Reflecting on her personal history, she discusses how the world that arose post-World War II was a beacon of hope and progress, far exceeding anyone’s expectations when the war commenced.
The West Cork History Festival, taking place from 9th to 11th August at the Inish Beg estate will feature talks by Prof Roy Foster and Prof Margaret MacMillan.