The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has expressed concerns that extending the Help to Buy scheme could lead to a surge in property prices since it primarily focuses on demand rather than supply. Despite reservations from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, the government decided to continue the scheme until 2029. The scheme, which offers tax rebates to first-time property buyers, has been criticised for being a demand-side solution to a supply-side issue. Reviews commissioned by the Department of Finance have also recommended a phased restructuring of the scheme for better targeting and to lessen the deadweight.
Since the scheme’s launch in 2016, statistics from the Revenue reveal almost 50,000 Help to Buy claims have been sanctioned at an estimated cost of €1.07 billion. Furthermore, the budget’s review by the PBO revealed worker’s take-home pay is expected to increase due to updates to income tax brackets and decreases in universal social change (USC). However, in a fully-capacitated economy, such tax measures could add to inflation, warned the PBO.
The PBO also evaluated the effects of welfare and tax measures as being progressive, with lower-income households benefitting on a larger scale compared to the middle and upper-income households. This outcome is driven primarily by core welfare rate hikes and qualified child benefits. On average, households experienced a 1.9 per cent gain from the 2025 budget, with the lower ten per cent gaining 3.3 per cent while the upper ten per cent gained 1.2 per cent. As measures for temporary cost of living are being phased out, the PBO suggests assessing the adequacy of key social welfare payment rates.
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