Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic nominee, continues to make progressive strides in the US Presidential elections, with both national and swing state polls indicating her increasing leading position or successful catch-up to rival, Donald Trump. The reputable poll analysis platform, FridayFiveThirtyEight, had Ms Harris ahead by 2.1 points nationally.
When it comes down to the crucial swing states, where the eventual occupant of the White House is decided, Ms Harris outstripped Trump by margins of two, 1.1, and 1.8 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin respectively, while Trump clung to a slim lead in Arizona and Georgia, both less than half a point.
For battleground states lacking sufficient poll data, Trump is approximately three points ahead in North Carolina, while a parallel competition appears in Nevada, Harris recently boasted two-point leads in CBS and Bloomberg polls and six points up according to Nevada Independent’s report on Friday.
The current Vice President, 59-year-old Kamala Harris, has rejuvenated the election race since mid-July when fellow Democrat Joe Biden, aged 81, succumbed to his party’s request to make way for a younger contender against 78-year-old Trump. Biden has underlined his support for Harris to lead the Democratic party this coming November, stating his intent to serve his single term.
Amy Walter, from the unbiased Cook Political Report, alerted the media network PBS that prior to Harris entering the election fray, Biden was trailing significantly in terms of national popular votes and in battleground states. Walter highlighted that Harris’s involvement prompted substantial shifts of four to five points in these key states, a trend mirrored in the national polls. However, this advancement hasn’t converted Trump-favoured states to lean towards Harris, rather it has balanced the contest, leading to the tag of a “toss-up.”
The Cook Political Report promptly amended its categorisations for three Sunbelt swing states – Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada – from “leaning Republican” to “toss-up” following this shift.
In a fresh development, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an analytical platform located at the University of Virginia, has shifted its political classification of Georgia from a tendency towards Republican to an unpredictable outcome. The site also adjusted its predictions for New Hampshire and Minnesota, where it noted advances made by Mr Trump even as Mr Biden held a reigning position on the Democratic ticket, changing these from leaning Democratic to probable Democratic.
Known for being the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz is Ms Harris’s selection as vice-president. While his influence on the poll results is still to be determined, there have been expressions of surprise that Ms Harris overlooked Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, particularly given that the state is a critical electoral battleground.
The choice of Mr Walz sparked debate. For Joel K Goldstein of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, even though the stakes were high for Mr Shapiro and Mark Kelly, senator of Arizona, these “competitive state” contenders are crucial contributors to the 306 electoral votes secured by the Democrats in 2020. However, he suggested that in choosing Mr Walz, Ms Harris has provided yet another instance that a vice-presidential selection depends on factors beyond just the exaggerated importance of gaining an advantage in their home state.
Goldstein highlighted that Walz, among the given alternatives, had the most substantial experience (17.5 years) in standard vice-presidential roles (as senator, governor, member of the House of Representatives, and high-ranking federal executive officer) compared to the limited experience (1.5 years) of his Republican rival, JD Vance, who serves as a senator for Ohio.
Several prominent individual polls noted Ms Harris taking the lead for the second consecutive week in the Economist/YouGov survey, achieving a two-point lead. The Reuters/Ipsos survey indicated a five-point increase for Ms Harris at 42%, up by two points since the last such poll taken following Mr Biden’s withdrawal. The same survey also indicated a separate poll in the seven battleground states where Ms Harris surpassed Mr Trump at 42% to 40%, although specific state results were not disclosed.
A country-wide survey from Marquette University in Wisconsin displayed a six-point lead for Ms Harris, holding 53% support among likely voters compared to 47% for Mr Trump. Even with other candidates added into the mix, Ms Harris maintained her leading position. The key independent contender, Robert F Kennedy Jr, received 6% support. However, this marked a drop in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, where Kennedy’s support had fallen six points to 4% since July.
The Marquette survey offers additional positive updates for Ms Harris, indicating that her dynamic influence is palpable as we near the end of the campaign. There’s been an elevation of 11 percentage points in those who expressed extreme eagerness to cast their votes in the forthcoming November election, according to The Guardian.