By the end of the previous week, it seemed the much-needed rejuvination of the Democrats’ election campaign in the United States had taken effect. The surge of vigour as a result of sidelining Joe Biden has begun to show up in the polls. Currently, according to the national poll average, Kamala Harris holds a slight advantage over Donald Trump, whether or not Robert F Kennedy is taken into account.
Despite the interest spurred by the substantial ticket reshuffle, Harris’s increase in support is only slight. Trump’s ability to form a political following has paid off. The alternative world his devoted ‘MAGA’ supporters inhabit is nearly impervious to other influences. They function within a sphere of American devastation, rather than American reality. The creation of this so-called ‘post-truth’ atmosphere has been intensified by Fox News, MAGA-friendly conspiracy theorisers and frenetic online communities with their labyrinthine echo-chambers. This veil of propaganda shrouds tens of millions of American voters who are unable or unwilling to acknowledge Trump’s duplicity, either by denying, ignoring or supporting it.
Nevertheless, a shift has occurred. The power of the MAGA campaign to attract fresh, independent or undecided voters seems to be waning. With the election largely reliant on just seven states, namely Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, this is a critical development. From early March to late May, over $72 million was directed at election media advertising with nearly three-quarters of this sum disproportionately pumped into these key seven states. A significant portion, around a third, was allocated to Pennsylvania alone, with the Trump campaign investing half its total advertising budget there.
However, that was back in May, and matters have progressed dramatically over the past month plus, from late June to early August. A string of political events have unfolded: the calamitous debate that saw a national astonishment at Biden’s lack of clarity; an assassation attempt on Trump, which has largely been swept under the carpet, not least due to his failure during the subsequent Republican National Convetion to spin a narrative his team had been constructing about a ‘different’ Trump, instead reverting to his habitual incoherent rambling; the announcement of JD Vance as Trump’s vice-presidential candidate selection, signalling a remarkable political ascent; the withdrawal of Biden from the race; the consequent emergence of Harris from obscurity, and the surprising yet astute choice of Tim Walz, not Josh Shapiro, as her running mate.
The landscape of Ireland has drastically changed since my childhood years spent in a begrudging society. It’s not feasible to rely upon environmentally aware nuns to oppose data centres actively. Currently residing in the US feels akin to living amidst the burning chapters of a historical book. The ongoing housing crisis has racked up an ethically reprehensible cost, intimately impacting the lives of young children.
Harris, as a Democrat candidate, is now harnessing great momentum fueled by a collective sigh of relief and excitement resulting from Biden’s departure from the political fray. Surprisingly, the war crimes perpetrated by Israel in Gaza and the consequential Palestinian suffering doesn’t seem to significantly penetrate the insulated American psyche. Observing mainstream media consumption in the States is a striking contrast to the media environment in Ireland, where these grave issues regularly dominate the headlines.
Harris and Walz, when appearing in evening news broadcasts, project positivity, unity, and peace. JD Vance was originally selected for Trump’s side banking on Biden as the competitor. However, Vance is seemingly a liability rather than a political advantage. Furthermore, the ‘MAGA’ campaign seems to be caught in its self-constructed cul de sac, with repetitive panic-fueled campaigns losing their initial impact. Their forthcoming success hinges on the resident population of this restricted bubble in the decisive seven states.
While Obama’s 2008 campaign was underscored with ‘hope’, ‘joy’ underlines Walz’s campaign. Resourceful messaging to trigger donations and stir voluntary support requires powerful inspirational energy. Even within autocratic movements, the hope of a better future can ignite mass mobilization, albeit often through deceptive propaganda that paints constructed enemies as barriers. Despite its repugnance, the Trump campaign of 2016 succeeded in doing just that. Their rallying cry, ‘Make America Great Again’, transmogrified into a cult following. The prime focus of the Democrats’ campaigns in 2016, 2020, and the initial stretch of 2024 centered around halting Trump. However, with Biden’s exit, Harris’s campaign rhetoric has shifted towards less Trump-bashing and more emphasis on their vision, policies, and a positive narrative.
“Earlier, Trump’s extreme approach and communications had a somewhat invigorating albeit damaging vitality. However, there’s an emerging sense of weariness. The communication is at its absolute peak, leading to a lot of noise, but it has no potential to find another operational level. There is nothing fresh to offer except hysteria. This hysteria could ultimately be effective, with tens of millions supporting it. But whether it can increase its foundations in the next three months is doubtful.
The upcoming election is complex and will hinge on a plethora of factors. Numerous battleground states are delicately balanced. But as of now, in August, Harris appears to hold the momentum. Her team’s ability to raise funds is remarkable. She is prevailing in the meme wars. Previously reliable forecast markets like Polymarket, which initially declared Trump the certain winner, now predict a tie between Trump and Harris. People may be reticent to share their true views with pollsters, but they’re honest when it comes to their own gambling money. Will all of this evaporate or even have any significance in the end?
The next phase of how Trump, cornered, deprived of control over the narrative, and struggling for attention, responds is about to unfold. Although anything is feasible, including potentially instigating widespread political violence. Despite their smiles, Harris and Walz are navigating perilous times.”