“Haniyeh Assassination: Fear of Hamas Retaliation”

Early Wednesday morning in Tehran, Iran’s capital, Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, was assassinated. This action drew immediate threats of retribution from Israel, escalating fears that the ongoing conflict in Gaza could evolve into a broader Middle East war. Both the Palestinian militant Islamist group Hamas and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards verified Mr Haniyeh’s demise, stating it happened several hours post the swearing-in event of Iran’s new president.

Despite the prevailing speculation pinning the assassination on Israel, the Israeli government under Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu neither confirmed nor denied the allegations, choosing to remain silent on the issue. Mr Haniyeh, who typically operates from Qatar, acted as Hamas’s diplomatic liaison during the war triggered by the attack initiated by Hamas on Israel on October 7th and was also involved in talks aiming to secure a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave.

The assassination of Mr Haniyeh occurred less than a day after Israel asserted it had eliminated Hizbullah’s top military commander in Beirut, Lebanon in response to a lethal rocket assault in the region of Golan Heights dominated by Israel. It was later confirmed by two Lebanese security sources that Fuad Shukr, Hizbullah’s operations chief, was discovered under the remnants left by an airstrike in southern Beirut.

The aforementioned incidents seemingly diminish the possibility of a ceasefire arrangement in the close to 10-month protracted war between Israel and Hamas, supported by Iran, in Gaza. The armed wing of Hamas responded with a statement indicating that Mr Haniyeh’s assassination would escalate the conflict to unforeseen levels with substantial consequences. Iran, echoing Hamas’ sentiment of retribution, declared a three-day mourning period and held the US accountable because of its aid to Israel.

Iran’s primary authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expressed that Israel had created a situation that warranted ‘severe retribution’ and emphasised the necessity for Tehran to avenge Mr Haniyeh’s demise. There have already been direct attacks on Israel initiated by Iranian forces in the ongoing Gaza conflict.

A representative from the Israeli government, based in Jerusalem, refrained from providing a statement on Mr Haniyeh’s killing. However, they did confirm that Israel was prepared for any potential backlash from Iran.

Government spokesperson, David Mencer, informed media participants in a briefing that Israel was intent on pursuing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, as well as securing the freedom of Israeli captives held by Palestinian militants.

Meanwhile, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, skilfully evaded a query about Mr Haniyeh’s killing during a gathering in Singapore. He remarked that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza was crucial in preventing a larger regional crisis.

Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant confirmed that Israel was not aiming for further escalation of the war, but remained ready for all eventualities.

In response to Mr Haniyeh’s death, Qatar condemned the act as a perilous intensification of the ongoing conflict. The Qatar PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, questioned how peace negotiations could be fruitful if one party is eliminating negotiators from the other side. Similar sentiments were echoed by Egypt and other nations like China, Russia, Turkey and Iraq, all criticising Israel’s actions.

Following the event of the killing, Iran’s top security council held a meeting to formulate a suitable response, a source familiar with the matter revealed.

The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, strongly rebuked the assassination and Palestinian groups in the Israeli-occupied West Bank called for a strike and mass protests.

Cognisance of the situation in Israel revealed an optimistic mood amongst the citizens, as they viewed Mr Haniyeh’s death as a significant success against Hamas. However, occupants of the besieged Gaza had a contradictory perspective, fearing that the fighting would last even longer in light of Mr Haniyeh’s death.

Fatima Al Saati, a Gaza resident, mourned the loss of Mr Haniyeh saying, “We lost one of our very own.” Her sentiments were echoed by her fellow neighbour, Hachem Al-Saati, who felt Mr Haniyeh was like a patriarch to them.

Ex-Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh’s predicted successor is Khaled Meshaal, who is currently residing in Qatar and serving as his deputy-in-exile, according to Hamas officials and analysts. With Meshaal’s charisma, growing popularity and regional influence, Hamas began to take on a more significant role in the Middle East conflict.

In 1997, Meshaal narrowly escaped a life-threatening attack in Jordan, orchestrated by Netanyahu. When appointed to the highest-ranking role within Hamas in 2017, Haniyeh found himself operating between Turkey and Qatar’s capital, Doha. This allowed him to evade Gaza Strip’s travel restrictions and perform his duties as a peace talk negotiator or liaise with Iran, a Hamas ally. In an Israeli airstrike that took place in April, Haniyeh lost three of his sons.

Following the assassination of his deputy Saleh Al-Arouri by Israel in January, only Yehya Al-Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza who masterminded the attack on Israel on October 7th, and Zaher Jabarin, the group’s West Bank leader, remain but they are in hiding. The aforementioned Hamas attack led to the death of roughly 1,200 Southern Israeli residents and approximately 250 were taken to Gaza as hostages, according to Israeli accounts.

In retaliation, Israel initiated a coastal land and aerial attack that resulted in the demise of over 39,400 individuals as per Gaza health officials, whilst also creating a humanitarian crisis for more than two million individuals. With the peace talks proving unsuccessful, Israel’s campaign shows no signs of letting up.

The likelihood of an escalating conflict between Israel and the Lebanese group Hizbullah has increased since the incident in the Golan Heights that led to the passing of 12 children in a Druze settlement on Saturday, coupled with Israel’s subsequent assassination of the group’s operation head. – Reuters

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