Prior to her right-wing coalition assuming control in Italy approximately 18 months ago, Giorgia Meloni had begun to moderate her earlier fervent scepticism towards the European Union. Currently, as Europe edges towards its imminent elections, Meloni’s hard-right party, the Brothers of Italy – with its past ingrained in neo-fascism – looks set to poll favourably yet again. Consequently, the Italian PM may find herself playing a decisive role in the upcoming EU political negotiations that will commence in Brussels after the ballot count.
When Meloni ascended to the role of Prime Minister in October 2022, there was anxiety that her staunch conservatism would be a disruptive presence amongst the EU leadership, similar to the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s repeated obstruction. However, this concern was ultimately unfounded. Upon attending her first European Council summit, Meloni made it known she was a leader who could cooperate with the other 26 members at the table, as recounted by an informed source.
The 47-year-old politician hails from Rome and was once considered a rising figure within the far-right, however, she has since endeavoured to soften her public image while in office. Daniele Albertazzi, a political science professor at the University of Surrey commented that Meloni has been astute in not engaging in an unwinnable conflict with the EU.
She instead attempted to align herself as a pro-Ukraine ally, while adhering to the EU’s foreign policy stance. Albertazzi, an analyst of Italian political affairs, suggested that considering Italy’s significant public debt burden, the goal was to not exacerbate relations with financial markets or Brussels. He noted, “Any Prime Minister of Italy is insufficiently powerful to weather a genuine confrontation with the European Commission, particularly when the Commission is funding us.” He elaborated that instead of provoking a futile battle and then feigning victory, Meloni prefers to sidestep any conflict altogether.
Meloni’s progression towards the mainstream political realm can largely be attributed to her collaboration with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, on the issue of immigration policy. Italy has historically served as a principal entry point for asylum seekers and migrants travelling across the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe.
Italy’s right-wing coalition has adopted a stringent attitude on immigration, forging ahead with a contentious scheme to transfer asylum seekers to Albania for processing their applications. Last year saw the passing of an Italian law aimed at extending the duration asylum seekers can be held in detention centres, in an attempt to limit arrivals.
With the passing years, Europe’s stance on asylum has become increasingly unbending and is now aligning more with Meloni’s view. The recently ratified pan-European immigration pact reforms point towards the establishment of an increased number of detention facilities along the bloc’s peripheries and swift resolutions on asylum applications and expulsions.
Should Fratelli d’Italia emerge victorious in the anticipated poll this coming weekend, it will be regarded as a validation of the course fashioned by Meloni. Currently, the party holds 10 seats in the European Parliament in contrast to the 23 owned by far-right Lega, led by Matteo Salvini. However, this balance is anticipated to swing. An observer of Italian politics forecasts that Meloni’s party could potentially double their current seathold, possibly coming close to securing 30 MEPs.
An examination of investments in Facebook and Instagram advertising illustrates that the party is injecting almost double the amounts in social media compared to other parties. Meloni is the prominent face of these political advertisements and of the party’s overall EU election campaign.
Survey results show the party leading ahead of centre-left Partito Democratico and the left-wing populist party Movimento 5 Stelle. Meloni’s right-wing coalition associates Forza Italia and Lega trail even farther behind. The significant advances of her party have largely been at the cost of Lega, whose uncertain election campaign under Salvini has stimulated internal disquiet.
In a pattern consistent with the last general election, the left wing of the political landscape appears more disjointed than the right. Elly Schlein, the 39-year-old head of Partito Democratico, utilised a recent Rome rally to emphasise the urgency to rescue Italy’s deteriorating healthcare system and to foster a more socially-conscious Europe.
When Meloni assumed the role of prime minister, there were suspicions that her coalition could jeopardise abortion and LGBT+ rights. The Senate recently ratified a bill permitting anti-abortion groups to have a presence at counselling centres for women contemplating termination of their pregnancies.
Albertazzi claims there’s no widespread demand for rolling back LGBT+ rights. They assert that Meloni, potentially Italy’s next leader, might adopt a more subtle approach rather than openly igniting conflicts akin to Orban’s style. Meloni has plans to bring about substantial changes to Italy’s infamous unstable political arena, aiming to increase the authority in the Prime Minister’s office through direct elections, rather than presidential nomination. These potentially disputed modifications are likely to be subjected to referendum, subsequently strengthening or undermining Meloni’s position.
Meloni has also been observed to moderate some of her more extreme viewpoints she voiced when in opposition, such as doubting Italy’s engagement with the euro, according to Leo Goretti, who oversees Italian foreign policy at the think tank, Istituto Affari Internazionali. This change, Goretti states, is primarily due to a “pragmatic” outlook recognising Italy’s interests in fostering closer connections with the EU, rather than distancing from it.
The Fratelli d’Italia party, if successful in winning over 20 seats in the upcoming election, might become a significant influencer in the ensuing European Parliament, predicted to move toward the right. European Commission President, Von der Leyen, who requires a majority of MEPs’ backing for a second term, expressed her willingness to accept Fratelli d’Italia’s support. Similarly, far-right French leader Marine Le Pen has indicated willingness to collaborate with Meloni to consolidate far-right factions into a more cohesive entity.
Meloni’s past performance in leadership suggests her inclination towards supporting the commission president over Le Pen, negotiating more influence in the heart of EU policy-making in return. According to Goretti, this alignment has improved Meloni’s global image and standing, although it remains unsure if this would be beneficial for von der Leyen.