Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission and Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), are two seasoned politicians who recently shared the stage at a German election rally. Despite being noticeably shorter than Merz, Von der Leyen’s political aspirations are no less significant – she is the leading representative for the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP). With upcoming elections between June 6th-9th, which she refers to as “momentous”, she anticipates significant support for the CDU.
She foresees a Europe under increased pressure from populist, racist and demagogue influences, but pledges to protect European freedoms, liberal ideologies and the rule of law. Mirroring her concerns, Merz endorses the battle against populist extremism as a key element of the forthcoming weekend’s vote.
Positive results for the EPP would stimulate a pivotal year ahead for the CDU. After a four-year period in political opposition, the party plans to kick off its re-election campaign the following year, with Merz aiming to become the next German chancellor. Having been a CDU member since 1972, 68-year-old Merz initiated his political career in the European Parliament in 1989. After holding the longest period of candidacy for Germany’s top position, he also served as the CDU floor leader in the Bundestag for two years until 2002.
His political journey included a significant personal rivalry with Angela Merkel, who ousted him from his position in 2002, which led to his exit from politics. Subsequently, he built a successful career in investment banking before re-entering the political circle when Merkel stepped down as CDU chair in 2018. Despite two previous unsuccessful attempts, he finally took control of the CDU following the disappointing 2021 federal election. The CDU has since seen an eight-point recovery under his leadership, and recent polls indicate their popularity has surged to 32%.
The upcoming election will be a closely fought contest. If the election was held today, Merz’s CDU and their Bavarian CSU allies would compete fiercely with the tri-party alliance that constitutes Olaf Scholz’s ‘traffic light’ coalition. Observers are pondering why Merz’s political fortunes have improved, given that his capabilities and deficiencies remain relatively unchanged.
Recognised for his eloquent speeches, Merz frequently utilises the Bundestag platform to deliver notable criticisms of both individuals and policy. He inferred, for example, that Scholz lacked inherent leadership qualities and was more akin to a “power plumber”. Despite such pointed observations earning him acclaim, Merz retains a reputation for being a contentious figure even within his own party.
In a comparison by Der Spiegel, Merz, known for his sharp wit and intellect, is akin to a prosecutor, possessed of an icy genius and a strand of smugness. His temperament is more mercurial than the calm Merkel, with Merz notorious for his tantrums and public reprimands of his fellow MPs on the Bundestag floor.
As pressure mounts on the struggling Scholz coalition and elections approach, discontent within Merz’s ranks is vanishing as the promise of cabinet positions draws near. Following a six-year policy standstill and two ill-fated successors post-Merkel, Merz’s CDU unfolded a fresh 70-page party programme this month.
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The new plan seeks to maintain the support of middle-ground Merkel-era voters by welcoming “diverse families”, while tempting undecided voters with offers of tax reductions. However, the restoration of the party’s conservative image in an attempt to reclaim right-leaning voters proves an intriguing highlight.
The CDU plan indicates that Germany “can’t abandon nuclear power”- a policy discarded during Merkel’s tenure, while advocating for Germany to resist the EU-agreed transition to electric vehicles within the forthcoming decade.
“Ending the use of combustion engines threatens our wealth,” opined Carsten Linnemann, the CDU secretary general and the main architect of the party’s new programme. “It’s like cutting off the bough we are perched on.”
With a view to regain voters who’ve migrated to the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the programme proposes stronger asylum laws involving “secure third countries” and opposes “ideological gender language”. While it welcomes Muslims in Germany, the plan objects to any form of Islam that contradicts German family values and rejects German society’s liberties.
How the appeal to disenchanted voters from AfD will translate into a government programme with the Greens, currently the most feasible coalition partner for the CDU, is yet to be determined. The main competitor against Merz in the CDU stresses that the approaching election will hinge on the political centre, yet Merz’s focus remained constant on the recent Friday – centring attention on European elections and the forthcoming federal poll – on what he dubbed the “AfD phantom”.
This party represents not a choice for Germany, but an economic and moral regression, according to Merz. As dark clouds loomed, he asserted that his revamped CDU has returned as a sanctuary for German voters leaning right of centre.
“We must have self-awareness,” he stated, “of our identity, our location, our desires.”
The pending task for the CDU is to decide whether they will back Friedrich Merz for the chancellery.