Ahead of significant parliamentary elections this Saturday, there have been competing rallies engaging multitudes of Georgians, fueled by the possibility of election manipulation allegations and calls for street protests. The United National Movement (UNM), following its victory in elections two decades ago during the non-violent Rose Revolution, represents the leading opposition group amongst numerous others, with an objective to create a coalition government that would see an end to the twelve year reign of the Georgian Dream party. The latter party and the West have received accusations of pivoting toward autocracy and aligning with Moscow.
This past summer, Georgia’s progression towards EU membership stalled when its government endorsed laws viewed as curbing LGBT+ rights and exerting greater control over civil society organisations, moves perceived by critics as mirroring Russian imposed measures. Even though two significant waves of demonstrations in Tbilisi failed to halt the new legislation, opposition groups claim it stirred thousands of politicised young Georgians who are enthusiastic to vote this Saturday and determined to defend their vote through further protests if they suspect electoral manipulation.
At a recent opposition congregation at Tbilisi’s Freedom Square, 21-year-old Mariami Cholokhadze said, “We have no interest in reverting to Soviet rule or alignment with Russia. Russia’s occupation of our country in the 20th century is an event we do not wish to relive. This regime professes Russian friendliness- an utter fallacy.” She went on to share her belief in the opposition’s victory in the upcoming election, stating that the Georgian Dream party absolutely must relinquish power should they lose.
34-year-old Tbilisi doctor Anna Giorgadze expressed her support for a European future at the rally saying, “Our demonstration is a message to Europe of our conviction in this path”. She voiced her concerns about Georgian Dream’s authoritative governing style and how their recent implemented laws bring them closer to dictatorial rule. However, recognizing the resilience of their nation, she voiced her readiness, and the readiness of her compatriots, to resist if it comes to that.
On the other hand, Georgian Dream assures that its non-provocative approach towards Russia actually serves as a protective measure for the 3.7 million inhabitants of the country, suggesting that its adversaries might incite another warfare akin to the 2008 altercation with their northern neighbour, which Georgia did not triumph in.
The primary promises made by the party during its campaign focus on preserving harmony and continuing economic progression, predicted to reach a 7.6 per cent growth this year. This sentiment was echoed by supporters during a rally at Freedom Square on Wednesday.
The assembly turnout was similar to the opposition’s demonstration on Sunday. However, the participants appeared to be older, less affluent, and predominantly men. Many attendees were transported in from various areas of the country and declined to discuss political matters or the election. Critics of the government believe that state employees made up a large proportion of the crowd, who were likely mandated to attend and will feel compelled to vote en masse for the authority in power.
“The election must be won by Georgian Dream. We are in dire need of peace, observing Ukraine’s turmoil due to war – it’s imperative we shield our customs. Our objectives include becoming a part of the European Union, but we remain sceptical of LGBT influence,” said Nino, a local Tbilisi resident.
Her companion, Marina, fervently added, “Our Christian Orthodox identity, as a nation, should be recognised and accorded due respect.”
Predictive polls and surveys indicate that Georgian Dream may acquire the maximum number of seats from any individual party in the upcoming Saturday election. However, these numbers may dwindle if the collective opposition — comprising four aligned blocs — manage to procure the necessary 5 per cent vote prerequisite to enter parliament, as is the projected forecast.
Nino Dolidze, the frontliner for the public policy centre of the opposition party named Droa (It’s Time) – a member of the centre-right Coalition for Change, opined, “It is highly improbable that Georgian Dream will graciously accept loss and subtly remove itself from the contest.”
Dolidze suggests that Georgian Dream may draw inspiration from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who, despite apparently losing the 2020 presidential race, audaciously claimed victory and aggressively suppressed the ensuing upheaval.
“If such an eventuality arises, we would have no choice but to resist and defend our votes. In such a scenario, we anticipate support from the citizenry as well as from the West,” she voiced.
She concluded, “It is however most plausible that the Georgian Dream will seek every opportunity to cause a stir in the election, meddling at every voting booth, engendering discord among the opposition parties, pilfering and buying off votes wherever possible.”
Droa’s leader of foreign relations, Marika Mikiashvili, suggests that individuals allied with Georgian Dream are in charge of significant institutions including the central election commission. Mikiashvili contends that the involvement of outside observers and opposition at polling stations is crucial given these circumstances. However, the government refutes claims of having improper authority over the election system.
Mikiashvili predicts that the election will undergo manipulations. She suggests that a large enough voter turnout could possibly counteract any manipulation tactics. Although she doesn’t rule out a scenario akin to that of Lukashenko, she points out that Georgian Dream doesn’t hold the support of the military and police loyalty isn’t absolute.
Petre Tsiskarishvili, a high-ranking member of UNM, accuses the government of deliberately pruning the count of overseas polling stations to curb the effect of diaspora who support the opposition, whilst potentially fabricating their own support using unutilised votes from international Georgians.
Tsiskarishvili warns of the potential for any behaviour from the current administration, accusing it of undermining all democratic progress and institutions, even in the face of councils from the European Union. He states, “They view holding onto power as the ultimate goal. They observe Belarus, Russia, and specific central Asian nations and ponder, why can’t we assert authority like Putin or Lukashenko who’ve held power for over two decades?”
Warnings from Brussels and Washington have been issued to Georgia, indicating potentially grave repercussions if the upcoming elections are manipulated or affected by governmental aggression. As a result, visa-free European Union travel for Georgian residents could be jeopardised and the billionaire Ivanishvili may confront financial reprimands.
The Georgian Dream’s rhetoric stays firm as the election day approaches. Ivanishvili and his associates continuously threaten to outlaw and persecute their political rivals and ominously speak of a “war party” in the West intent on causing instability in Georgia “by forcing it into combat with Russia and aiding in the violent overthrow of the existing government”.
However, Nikoloz Samkharadze, a prominent member of Georgian Dream and the chairman of the foreign relations committee in parliament, is optimistic about his party securing more than half the votes, whilst also promising to accept defeat graciously. “We won’t have any irregularities. We’re democratic and trust our people. We’ll accept any result that is announced by the central election commission,” he further adds.
Samkharadze holds the view that the opposition, particularly the UNM, will dispute the results if they lose, which he argues will be a just contest. He suggests that a portion of the opposition will reject the outcomes. He points out that the UNM has a history of not readily acknowledging such outcomes. Though there may be eventual acceptance after several months, they have consistently attempted to agitate the situation nationally and instigate public demonstrations. When it then became apparent that the citizens were unwilling to entertain these falsehoods, they assumed their roles parliament. He anticipates a repetition of this pattern.