Frequent pub debates revolve around which rugby players deserve more caps for Ireland. The name of Gavin Coombes is commonly tossed around in these discussions across the nation. He has demonstrated remarkable abilities in provincial matches over recent years, as indicated by his stats. Yet at 26, the Munster back row player finds himself amid a time filled with top-tier Irish number eights such as Caelan Doris (26), Jack Conan (32), Nick Timoney (29), and Cian Prendergast (24), all who were selected ahead of the Munster player for the South Africa tour. Max Deegan, also 28 years old, is another rival. Both Deegan and Coombes have only two Ireland caps each.
This Saturday, four of those number eights will play at Croke Park. In Belfast, Timoney and Prendergast will compete against each other. Ireland coach Andy Farrell is thought to greatly appreciate standout performances against Irish competitors when determining selection. Ulster’s victory over Leinster at the RDS last term was considerably influenced by Timoney. It begs the question, does Coombes have a comparable standout performance to his credit?
Currently, the competition seems focused on the third-choice number eight spot for Ireland, given Doris and Conan’s exceptional performances. However, considering this is a Lions year and Ireland is set to tour Romania and Georgia next summer, there should be more opportunities to acquire international caps. At least one number eight from Ireland will feature on the Lions tour. Coombes, Deegan, Timoney, Prendergast, and perhaps Conan, will strive to increase their tally of caps, with the first round of this competition happening in this weekend’s interpros.
Taking into account the latest Ireland squad, Farrell appears to favour Timoney and Prendergast over Deegan and Coombes. Their ability to play multiple positions may have contributed to their inclusion in the South Africa tour, among other factors. A glimpse at the previous year’s stats is likely to shed further light on this matter.
The resilience and work ethic of Coombes often stand out as his strengths. Coombes had 1,332 minutes of play last season, more than any other United Rugby Championship (URC) forward except for Ruben van Heerden from the Stormers and Elrigh Louw from the Bulls. Coombes ranked sixth in global club rugby for carries (231) and first in the URC. He also had the most successful carries in the URC, totalling 116, with over half of these considered positive.
Thus far in the current season, despite only playing in two out of three games for Munster, Coombes already holds a top 10 spot in the URC for carries (34) and carries past the gainline (15). However, the validity of these statistics is to be taken with some scepticism considering the small size of the sample.
How does Coombes’s performance compare to last season’s, or even with other Irish number eights?
Coombes, when compared to players like Deegan, Timoney, Prendergast, Conan, and Doris, seems to prioritize volume over impact. Opta data reveals that his dominant carry rate from last season was the lowest in this group at 32 per cent. However, his gainline success rate of 62.3 per cent places him above Deegan and Prendergast, but below Timoney, Conan, and Doris.
Dominant carries indicate that players often receive passes well beyond the gainline, despite still getting credit for defeating a defender in the collision. Gainline carries, as the name suggests, are direct takes beyond the gainline.
One interesting point is that Coombes tops these ranked players, drawing at least two tacklers, 75.8 per cent of the time. This would imply that the bulk of his collisions occur close to the ruck, where defences are better equipped with numbers.
Many number eights opt for carrying in the wider channels, where there’s more room. Carrying closer to the ruck, against a group of large forwards instead of a smaller winger, makes dominating a collision more challenging. Also take into account that Coombes has also played in the second row for Munster, which could further explain his preference for carrying close to the ruck.
Fellow players play a pivotal role on the rugby field. For Munster, the principal ball handler is Coombes. Leinster, in contrast, has three players wearing the number eight jersey featuring on this list, including the commendable Joe McCarthy with impressive carrying figures. The allocation of responsibilities allows players to enhance their statistics as several individuals can carry in promising situations rather than subjecting a single member to take the tough carries all the time.
On the defence side, the figures show that Coombes has a dominating tackle rate (6.5%) that parallels Timoney (6.3%) and Prendergast (6.2%). Yet, Doris (7.4%), Deegan (12%) and Conan (12.1%) show superior performance. Pertaining to the breakdown, last year’s data suggests that Prendergast was the top local performer in this group. He was most proficient at disrupting opponent’s rucks (21.7% effective) and the second-best at managing his team’s breakdowns (91.9% effective). Doris topped this category (92.1% effective). Coombes, with the least defensive breakdown efficiency (11.8%), ranked third when holding the ball (91.5%).
These stats highlight the varying abilities of different players. The task for the Ireland coaching team is to harmonise these strengths to enhance depth in the back row. The Lions’ tour next year leaves Simon Easterby, managing the team during Farrell’s stay in Australia, in a difficult position: should he select the impressive fringe will or opt to introduce the young talents already in line to succeed players like Doris?
Currently, Prendergast seems to hold an edge over Coombes in selection and is his junior by two years. Leinster’s James Culhane, age 21, further lowers the age bracket. Culhane’s reputation has been endorsed by Ireland following his inclusion in two Emerging Ireland tours and his selection as captain for the midweek Cheetahs match. It’s noteworthy that Culhane’s stats surpass those of Coombes considering dominant carries, gainline carries and carries engaging at least two defenders, but given Culhane’s limited playtime (266 provincial minutes to Coombes’s 1332), these figures should be considered with some caution.
Players like Coombes, who are producing impressive statistics as they approach their peak performance years without gaining any acknowledgement in Ireland, are nearing the moment where they must either step up or step aside. An outstanding interpro showing just before the November Internationals could be an ideal opportunity to begin.