Eamon Ryan, the Minister for Climate, has voiced concerns over the prevalent unease regarding the degree of fiscal support that affluent nations would provide to countries vulnerable to climate change. This threatens to undermine any potential global consensus at the upcoming Cop29 summit, which nearly 200 countries will attend.
Mr. Ryan, who returned to Brussels on Monday after conducting four-day pre-Cop deliberations in Azerbaijan, pointed out that existing inequities in energy systems restrict access of developing countries to international financial markets. This has fostered a climate of distrust which could potentially hamper advancement.
Mr. Ryan emphasised the paramount importance of achieving consensus, despite significant financial hurdles, particularly given the pervasive impact of climate change around the globe.
The forthcoming annual UN climate discussions, also known as conference of the parties (Cops), are scheduled to take place in Baku. The prior meet, Cop28, held in Dubai, made significant strides by agreeing to a systematic and equitable shift from fossil fuels and a twofold increase by 2030 in the usage of renewable energy. A historical decision was also reached at Cop28 in Egypt to establish a “loss and damage fund” to aid developing countries in dealing with the inevitable consequences of climate change.
Before attending an Environment Council meeting, Mr. Ryan revealed that the key issue for Cop29 was procuring financial resources. This comes against a backdrop where African nations are finding themselves excluded from private funding for transitioning to greener energy. Despite the developed world boosting their renewable resources by over 400 gigawatts (GW) last year, Mr. Ryan pointed out that Africa received a meagre 1.5GW, in stark contrast to the US’s annual power consumption of approximately 500GW.
Mr. Ryan stressed that public funding alone cannot address this issue; both public and private funding at a significant scale are necessary. He also highlighted the requirement to expand the interpretation of “adaptation” to help poorer nations access more comprehensive funding for building resilience. Mr. Ryan, who was chosen by the UN to spearhead negotiations in Baku, underscored this point.
The integration of climate action and development goals could be a recoursive strategy to avoid possible stagnation in Baku, noted an anonymous official. The anonymous official stated that the present climate, marked by strained geopolitical interactions and diminishing multilateral collaboration, elevates the complexity of this task.
The official warned of the tangible possibility of failing to reach an agreement and stressed the urgency of preventative action. It’s paramount for avoidance to have political involvement, genuine diplomacy, and enhanced multilateral collaboration.
In terms of potential catalysts, he argued that the EU has the capacity to foster a favourable environment. However, it must establish a plan for enhancing its determination, supported by public funds, whilst still considering critical factors such as land usage and farming, and ensuring just transitions are made.
He highlighted the necessity for trillions of dollars to target the sources and repercussions of climate change. Nonetheless, Yalchin Rafiyev, the chief negotiator of Cop29, believed that a figure in the “hundreds of billions” was a more feasible expectation for a unified decision.
The task ahead for negotiators is to unite on a fresh financial target to take over the current obligation of affluent nations to contribute $100 billion per annum towards climate finance. A significant milestone was the recent gathering of parties involved in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, who ratified the 2015 Paris Agreement. They recognised for the first time that the required scale of funds extends into the trillions of dollars, according to Rafiyev. Rafiyev, however, pointed out that the public sector’s reachable contribution and mobilisation lie in the “hundreds of billions”.