In the first round of a sudden parliamentary election, French citizens commenced voting on Sunday, potentially paving a path for the nation’s first extremist right-wing government since World War II – a development that could significantly alter the political landscape of the European Union. This exceptional turn of circumstances was prompted by President Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected call for a vote, following his centrist coalition’s defeat at the European elections earlier this month to the National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen. RN, a traditionally fringe party noted for its Euroscepticism and anti-immigration stance, now finds itself on the precipice of power.
Voting commenced at 6am Irish time and will conclude at 4pm in smaller towns and cities, and 6pm in larger cities. Initial voter exit interviews and estimates for the crucial second round, set to occur a week later, are anticipated to commence then. The dispersion of seats within the National Assembly, composed of 577 seats, can be difficult to predict due to the electoral system and final results will be available once voting ends on July 7th.
Le Pen, optimistic about her party’s chances, announced in a published interview on Wednesday that she anticipated a comprehensive victory for her party and mooted the expectation that her protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would assume the role of Prime Minister. The RN’s political agenda includes a high expenditure economic plan and a drive to curtail immigration.
However, should RN clinch a distinct majority, it could instigate a period of unparalleled diplomatic turmoil. Macron, who plans to retain his presidential role until the conclusion of his term in 2027, and Bardella would find themselves vying for the right to be France’s voice.
Didier Delacroix, a 70-year-old retired company director, stated that he had cast his vote in favour of Macron’s coalition at a polling station in Sevres on the Parisian city outskirts. He voiced his concerns that otherwise, “it’ll be a complete mess.”
French political history post-war features three instances of “cohabitation”, where a president and the government hail from opposing political factions. Never before, however, have these entities possessed such radically different ideologies. Bardella has intimated that he would contest Macron on international issues, and France may find itself transforming from an EU stalwart into a dissenting party, demanding recompense for its contribution to the EU budget, colliding with Brussels over European Commission roles, and opposing Macron’s push for greater EU unity and defence robustness.
A definitive victory for the National Rally (RN) could leave France’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict uncertain. The party’s leader, Le Pen, has previously exhibited pro-Russian views. Though the party asserts its support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian forces, it set certain boundaries, for example not offering long-range missiles.
A recent public opinion poll suggests RN leading popular vote at 33-36%. Following them is the hastily unified left-wing union, the New Popular Front, polling at 28-31%. Macron’s central alliance has the third spot at 20-23%. The New Popular Front encompasses a spectrum of political parties, extending from moderate centre-left to the extreme-left, anti-NATO, Eurosceptic party, France Unbowed, headed by Jean-Luc Melenchon, an outspoken adversary of Macron.
Professor of political science at the University of Nice and the Ecole Polytechnique, Vincent Martigny, stated that predicting seat distribution in the National Assembly based on these poll figures is challenging due to the election’s complexity. In constituencies, candidates securing an absolute majority in the inaugural round are elected, which is uncommon.
However, most constituencies necessitate a second round that includes candidates who have secured votes from a minimum of 12.5% of registered voters in the first round. The candidate with the highest votes triumphs. Martigny observed that increased voter turnout could see a third or fourth party joining the fray, potentially leading to split voting, which traditionally benefits the National Rally.
Historically, when the far-right party came close to national power, its opposition united against it; however, this might not be the case in the current scenario.
Martigny concluded by noting that it remains uncertain whether Macron’s team candidates would contemplate withdrawing from the second round to give their leftist competitors a fighting chance at defeating the National Rally, or vice versa.
Le Pen and Bardella have been attempting to render their party’s image more palatable to the general public, notably by openly condemning anti-Semitism. Jean-Marie Le Pen, Le Pen’s father and the original founder and enduring head of the RN, was known for his blatant anti-Semitic remarks. Despite this, detractors argue that the RN’s engagement with the Jewish community serves solely as a smokescreen to deflect allegations of racism, while persistently marginalising Muslims and outsiders in France.