The French governmental structure served its purpose – preventing the extreme right from ascending to power. Still, the path forward remains unclear. As coalition politics is not deeply engrained in France, the nation may require swift adjustment to prevent ongoing political stalemate.
Previously, it was manageable for the New Popular Front, a conglomeration of several leftist parties, to collaborate with President Emmanuel Macron’s central coalition in order to thwart the potential takeover by far-right forces. However, fostering a functional partnership between the two competitive factions – which would enable legislative progress – may pose a considerable challenge.
The recent success of the New Popular Front – comprising the radical ‘France Unbowed’, the Communist Party, the centre-left Socialists, and the Greens – took even its own members by surprise, as it emerged as the largest faction in the parliamentary elections, securing 182 of the 577 seats. Following that, came Macron’s camp with 168 seats and subsequently, Marine Le Pen’s far-right and anti-immigrant National Rally with 143 seats.
Already, there are suggestions that this result represents the precise defeat of the far-right, as envisaged by Macron. But at the core of politics is the need to secure more votes than one’s competitors. Macron anticipated that his centrist coalition would serve as the only viable alternative to the National Rally during the snap election a month ago; thereby enabling him to regain a clear majority. However, this plan fell through as the left united rapidly, leading to the lose of a third of the Parliament seats held by Macron’s centrist group.
Discussions within the French political sphere have since shifted towards the possibility of forming a government drawn from the fragmented new Parliament, none of which are anywhere near achieving a majority. The alliance between the centre-left Socialists and the more radical ‘France Unbowed’ under Jean-Luc Mélenchon was indisputably a strained one, serving the sole purpose of blocking the National Rally. Mélenchon, widely perceived to be as polarising as Le Pen, is equally shunned by the political centre when it comes to forming a coalition.
A plausible arrangement for a partnership could involve President Macron’s centrists and the comparatively moderate parties from the New Popular Front. The statistics, however, imply that such a coalition would still be inadequate to secure the 289-seat majority. A precarious union of left-wing and centre factions could struggle to reach consensus on policies, let alone enact them through subsequent parliamentary votes.
The Republicans, who gained over 60 positions, could potentially augment this coalition and form a comprehensive alliance. This right-leaning party found itself in disarray after its chief, Eric Ciotti, brokered an electoral deal with Le Pen, dividing the party in two. Collaborating with Macron’s left-of-centre forces might instigate a further division within the remaining centre-right faction.
In instances where any mix of factions cannot reach a compromise, France would be faced with a hung parliament until a new set of elections can be hosted in June 2025. Macron could consider an alternate route by appointing a technocratic administration comprised of officials, though, it would only be a viable alternative if attempts at forming a minority government or broad coalition end in failure.