During the sudden legislative elections in France this summer, the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, took third place. Subsequently, however, they have taken a major role in the political realm, providing crucial support to new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier. President Emmanuel Macron appointed Barnier, the former Brexit negotiator, as Prime Minister. This came after Macron’s contentious decision to hold unexpected elections led to a disorderly hung parliament in the National Assembly.
Barnier’s future, and indeed that of Macron, hinges on the National Rally and their cooperation, according to opposition politicians and analysts. Lucie Castets, the nominated Prime Minister of the winning leftist coalition in the July election, ignored by Macron, said that the Prime Minister was now reliant on the RN.
Macron has involuntarily put himself in a position of cohabitation with the RN, Castets stated. Cohabitation is a unique political situation in which the French President occasionally leads the country with a Prime Minister from a rival party.
Macron spent a considerable amount of time in his search for a candidate for the Prime Minister’s position. He aimed to find someone who could hold onto power, without overturning his previous legislative accomplishments, which bestowed on the RN a significant influence over the selection procedure.
While the RN showed initial approval of Barnier on Thursday, they reserved the right to remove their support if their demands concerning immigration, security, and economy were not satisfied. If in the coming weeks these matters are not addressed, we can take all necessary political steps, said RN’s President, Jordan Bardella.
Marine Tondelier, the leader of the French Green party, argued that Macron had let Le Pen take on a role similar to Julius Caesar, watching over a gladiatorial battle and giving a gesture of approval or disapproval to his Prime Minister nominee. Tondelier said, indicating that Le Pen’s endorsement was sought.
Barnier was expected to fully comprehend that his future was contingent on Le Pen, Socialist Party President Olivier Faure said. Anyone from his party would refuse to join the government. The far-right is now the one to determine the rulers, Faure said, speaking on France Inter.
Laurent Jacobelli, a member of the National Assembly, sought to diminish the perceived influence his RN party holds over the newly formed government. “We are resolutely in opposition… We are not sanctioning anyone,” he commented. “We won’t be the political entity causing France to hurtle towards catastrophe by persistently objecting to all initiatives and inciting havoc.”
The spotlight is now expected to shift towards the people Michel Barnier will aim to appoint to his cabinet, as well as potential forthcoming protests instigated by the left this Saturday.
Political analysis firm, Eurasia Group, have projected that select members from the previous government may remain onboard, however it is far from certain that finance minister Bruno Le Maire will be retained. They remarked, “As such, the individual that Barnier appoints as finance minister will play a pivotal role in ensuring Brussels and the financial markets maintain their confidence in France’s ability to navigate, and emerge unscathed from, a precarious political and financial crisis over the forthcoming three months.”
Eurasia also underscored the RN’s influence over Barnier. “Marine Le Pen, from the far-right, will be a critical figure in determining whether Barnier’s leadership will flourish or merely withstand the immediate future,” they stated.
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