On Sunday, the 8th of July, 2024, from 7pm to 8pm, rue du Temple was filled with dozens of white CRS police vans. The police were geared up with knee and shoulder pads, helmets, and visors. Similarly, young individuals at the end of the street, which leads to the Place de la République, were preparing themselves by wearing masks and eyewear for protection against tear gas.
By 8pm, the outcome of France’s sudden legislative elections were displayed on screens. The Place de la République echoed with a triumphant uproar that reverberated for several blocks.
Despite weeks of poll predictions favouring the extreme right side – Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), the actual winners were the New Popular Front (NFP). The NFP, a diverse alliance of the far left France Unbound (LFI), Socialists, Communists, and Greens, captured the most, 182 seats. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party, Ensemble, trailed in second place with 168 seats, while the RN ended up third with 143 seats.
This result left everyone in a state of disbelief, including Macron. The atmosphere in the République neighbourhood, a locale often associated with left-wing activities, dramatically shifted. A crowd of eight thousand people was overtaken by relief and joy, freely expressing their happiness through tears, hugs, dancing and celebrating until the early hours of 4am. The crowd included numerous Africans, Arabs and Muslim women wearing hijabs, who have felt threatened by the RN’s focus on national origins.
Despite the joyous celebrations, what transpires next leaves France in a precarious situation. France’s political landscape is shrouded by opaque uncertainty. The political system is divided into three factions, none are sufficiently dominant to rule. Like-minded parties lack the necessary numbers to form a majority, while parties that could join forces to achieve majority support are too driven by mutual hostility to reach agreements on substantial issues.
Even though the victorious left has fallen more than 100 short of the 289 seats (out of 577) necessary for a majority, Mélenchon still insists that they should get to choose the new prime minister. He is adamant that the NFP’s plan should define the new premier’s agenda, “and nothing else”.
Macron has indicated he will reveal his choice for Prime Minister once the new assembly has been finalised, with the assembly’s first meeting scheduled for July 18th. Macron has ruled out the prospect of selecting anyone from LFI, viewing the party as a threat on par with the RN. Proposals from the NFP, including a retirement age of 60, a minimum monthly wage of €1,600 and a freeze on prices of essential products, are predicted to draw at least €150 billion from the French national treasury.
By the end of this week, the NFP is expected to propose a candidate for Prime Minister. Unlike the rigid Mélenchon, both the Greens and Socialists are advocates for dialogue and compromise. Throughout the campaign, Marine Tondelier, the Green leader, and Raphaël Glucksmann, the Socialist MEP, have emerged as fervent and eloquent critics of far-right ideologies.
No leaders in the NFP have been contacted by Macron. His ex-Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, allegedly informed a colleague that Macron is inclined to rule with the right. While Macron’s Ensemble coalition could theoretically unite with remnants of the conservative party Les Républicains (LR) to gain 228 assembly votes, this number is insufficient for passing legislation and previous attempts to forge a coalition with LR have proven unsuccessful.
Supporters of Macron argue that his decision to instigate an early election was justified. According to the Elysée, the considerable voter turnout of 66.7% validates the dissolution of the National Assembly as a necessary response to a desire for democratic expression, and the likelihood of a coalition with the far-left has been mitigated.
However, the centralist faction championed by Macron has been reduced from 250 to 168 seats – a clear setback. With three years remaining in his presidency, Macron is now perceived as a figure of the past. The same young people who celebrated well into the night of July 8th now direct their ire towards Marine Le Pen’s successor, the RN leader Jordan “Merdella” Bardella, while Macron is largely ignored.
Although the far-right RN and the far-left NFP detest each other, they may unite in the National Assembly to insist on Macron’s removal. They share a common stand on freezing prices and calling off pension reform. Macron’s reform effect might not last long considering the current situation. Many from his circle have shifted their loyalties, now striving to replace him in 2027. The outgoing Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, has put reform of the unemployment system on hold, following an appalling first-round result.
At present, Macron has requested Attal to continue, aiming to maintain “stability” during the Paris Olympics. Naming his new Prime Minister could take Macron considerable time, probably spanning weeks or even months.
The RN’s setback was somewhat relative. From 2017 to 2022, there was a notable rise in its National Assembly seats, from seven to 89, reaching 143 in the current legislative period. The traditional “republican front”, where candidates from varied parties withdraw from three-way contests to keep the anti-RN vote intact, was unexpectedly successful.
According to Le Figaro, the RN, with 36% of the national vote, trumped NFP’s 25% and Macron’s Ensemble’s 23%. However, the RN’s votes were distributed across more electoral districts. There will be increased demand for proportional representation, which could boost the RN.
The far-right’s discontent with the perceived adversity in the system seems to be escalating. Roland Lescure, the outgoing industry minister, warned, “Unless we change our approach, Marine Le Pen may become the president in three years.”
Tactical voting led to the RN’s fall, yet the NFP’s surprisingly unified and efficient campaign, in spite of internal conflicts, also played a part. Furthermore, the RN exposed its core views, littered with homophobic, racist, and xenophobic sentiments. Le Pen and Bardella were perceived as revelling in their anticipated success.
As a token consolation, Bardella was bestowed with the role of president of the newly founded Patriots for Europe group by Hungary’s hard-right Prime Minister, Viktor Orban. According to Le Pen, the RN’s victory is simply a delay, not a dismissal.