This Sunday, France is heading toward a parliamentary second-round election that is set to reshape the country’s political structure. However, predictions indicate that the far-right party National Rally (RN), despite likely achieving the most votes, may not secure a majority. Such an event could potentially throw France into a complex situation of a hung parliament, undermining President Emmanuel Macron’s authority.
There lies a possibility that if the RN, known for its nationalist and Eurosceptic views, manages to win a majority, President Macron could be pushed into a challenging “cohabitation” situation. Last Sunday, Marine Le Pen’s RN achieved unprecedented victories in the initial votes, evoking fears of France having its first far-right government since World War II.
Nevertheless, the probability of the RN obtaining an outright majority in the 577-seat National Assembly is less assured after the centrist and left-leaning parties unified to form an anti-RN alliance in this past week. Current opinion polls anticipate the RN emerging as the leading legislative party but not amassing a 289-seat majority, which Ms Le Pen and her mentee, Jordan Bardella (28), think would entitle them to the prime ministerial role and steer France drastically towards the right.
Voting centres will be open from 8am to 6pm in smaller cities and to 8pm in larger ones, and initial voting results are expected as soon as the voting ends, based on preliminary counts from selected polling stations. The direction the election takes will hinge significantly on voters’ decision to follow the directives of primary anti-RN entities to prevent the far right from gaining power, or to back far-right candidates.
RN, long viewed with suspicion by many because of its historical involvement in racism and anti-Semitism, has seen increased backing fuelled by public frustration with Mr Macron, budget constraints and concerns about immigration.
Expressing her confidence in achieving a parliamentary majority, Ms Le Pen stated to TF1 TV on Wednesday, “French people have a real desire for change.” Despite possibly missing a clear majority, RN is projected to at least double the 89 seats it secured in the 2022 legislative election, making it the principal voice in a disorderly hung parliament which would pose governance challenges for France.
If such a scenario were to happen, it could cause a standstill in policy decisions until Mr Macron’s term as president concludes in 2027. It is anticipated that Ms Le Pen will make a fourth attempt to secure France’s key role in politics at that point.
Surprisingly, Mr Macron made the decision to hold early elections, which left his political allies and followers feeling discontent. This move came after a blow from RN in the European parliamentary vote the previous month, with Mr Macron hoping to catch his opponents off-guard in a statutory election. Regardless of how the election ends up, his political pathway seems to be at a dead end, three years prior to his presidential tenure’s conclusion.
Should RN fail to secure a majority, and chooses not to set up a government, this would put contemporary France in a realm of uncertainty. The policy variances between any of the groups would make the formation of a coalition incredibly complex.
Mr Bardella has mentioned that the RN would decline to establish a government if a majority is not won, however, Ms Le Pen has suggested that they might reconsider if they fall short by a small margin.
Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister, is likely to lose his role after the election. Despite suggestions that Mr Macron’s centralists could set up a government with members from different parties in the event of a parliament deadlock, Attal would prefer if the moderates were to pass laws on a case-by-case scenario.
Should RN secure a majority, Mr Macron would be forced into an uncomfortable joint-leadership with Bardella, creating complex constitutional and global queries about who genuinely represents France. – Reuters